There’s been a lot of chatter around gold lately—and much of it hasn’t been bullish. That’s largely because gold (and, as a result, the GLD Gold ETF ) has failed to reclaim its April highs. But let’s zoom out. Back in October 2023, soon after GLD bottomed, we began tracking the performance spread between GLD and the S & P 500 . Up until the end of 2024, the performances were remarkably even. They didn’t move in lockstep the entire time, but they didn’t drift far apart either. That changed in December. Gold took off while the SPX sputtered — before ultimately collapsing through the first week of April. By early April, the spread had widened to nearly over 100%. It looked like a runaway train—until the stock market’s historic pivot. Thanks to the epic equity comeback, that spread has since been cut in half and then some. The question — especially for gold investors — is whether a further reversion to the mean is next. Importantly, though, this recent bout of relative weakness hasn’t been because GLD cratered. Instead, it’s been a massive rotation back into equities. So, do we really need stocks to fall apart again for gold to move higher? On the surface, that makes sense. But as noted above, for over a year, both SPX and gold rallied together. And during that stretch, both were taking advantage of bullish chart setups. In fact, over the last year, GLD broke out of five bullish patterns. The sixth one has been under construction since April—and so far, we haven’t seen a breakout. That’s been frustrating, but the more times that 315-zone is tested without subsequently breaking down, the greater the odds it eventually gives way. Turning to the GLD/SPX relative ratio, the recent reversal occurred near the same trendline that capped prior rallies — twice before. Each of those prior peaks was followed by a long period of underperformance. For things to play out differently this time, we’ll need to see a higher low—and a good place for that to happen is near the yellow highlighted support area from recent years. Also worth watching: the 14-week RSI of the GLD/SPX ratio, which is trying to hold near the 50-level. If that area can serve as a floor, it would support another leg of relative outperformance. Lastly, from a big-picture perspective, gold gained roughly +240% from its 2015 low to its 2025 high. That’s impressive—but still well below the +700% and +650% moves from the 1970s and early 2000s, respectively. There’s no guarantee we see a repeat of those historic runs—but one thing is clear from the chart: Gold trends for extremely long periods. And from that angle, this time has been no different. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
