By Dr. José Roberto Balmori de la Miyar*
President Claudia Sheinbaum is about to fulfill her first year of mandate, and in the economic field we can perceive achievements and challenges. In this article I review the data for economic growth, inflation, employment, investment and consumer confidence. While some indicators show economic achievements, others indicate challenges.
The Mexican economy grew less than 1%, a modest rhythm that is aligned with the performance of the previous six -year period, maintaining the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita at levels similar to those of 2017. The performance of the productive sectors has been varied: while primary and tertiary activities showed an annual growth of 2.6% and 1.8% respectively, manufacturing has been stagnant for two years. Internal level, 13 of 20 sectors grew, highlighting business support services (15%) and professional, scientific and technical services (10.9%). In contrast, the sectors with the greatest falls were mining (-8.2%) and wholesale trade (-5.1%), the latter being a very important item in the country’s economy.
Inflation at the end of last month was 3.49%; A level found in the target range of the Bank of Mexico. However, the recent slowdown in inflation is due in its entirety to the non -underlying component, which is precisely the most volatile, and which was decelerated to 1.1% per year. On the other hand, the underlying inflation, which projects long -term inflation, remains out of rank in 4.2%, practically equal to last year. The challenge of inflation in Mexico lies in the inability of the Bank of Mexico to maintain the underlying component within its target range of 3% (+/- 1%). Worse, within the underlying component, the inflation of the goods is accelerating, which could increase the risk of inflation being outside Banxico.
The labor market in Mexico shows a combination of stability in employment and persistent structural challenges due to informality. The unemployment rate remained at 2.7% in the second quarter of 2025, a very low level that aligns with the one of the previous year. However, the labor informality rate increased 0.6% to reach 54.8% in the same period. Despite these difficulties, there were improvements in income. The average labor income grew by 2.25% annually in real terms, reaching $ 10,670 pesos in the second quarter of 2025. A crucial factor has been the increase in the minimum wage between 2018 and 2024, which promoted a significant reduction in poverty for income in the country. Labor income, rather than government transfers, consolidated as the main engine behind this improvement in poverty in Mexico.
The total investment has fallen by 6.8%, accumulating ten months of negative figures. This decrease limits the creation of quality jobs and brakes the welfare of households. Since private investment is the main capital formation engine in the country, constituting 90% of total investment, it is crucial to strengthen legal certainty and reduce national uncertainty. Despite this, an important achievement in this area is foreign direct investment (FDI), which increased more than 10% and broke records.
Finally, Mexican consumers show a dual perception of the economy, according to the consumer indicator (ICC) of August 2025. Although they feel optimistic about their personal finances, they are concerned about the country’s general landscape. The indicator that measures the economic situation of the home for the next 12 months rose 0.8 points, reaching 58.5.
This reflects increasing optimism about the possibility of saving and the intention of acquiring lasting goods and even making investments. On the negative side, confidence in the country’s economy is reduced, which generates a remarkable caution in leisure spending. This contrast shows that, although people feel safe with their individual situation, it is still prudent to general economic uncertainty. In conclusion, this first year of the administration of President Sheinbaum shows achievements and challenges in the economic area.
About the author:
*Dr. José Roberto Balmori de la Miyar He is the Director of the Bachelor’s Programs of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the Universidad Anáhuac Mexico.
Twitter: @jrbalmori
The opinions expressed are only the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and the editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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