The macroeconomic environment has significantly influenced investment opportunities in the cannabis industry. Although the last few years have been challenging, the reduction in macroeconomic pressures promises a less confusing future for participants in this sector in countries where it has already been legalized.
After a period of exceptionally high sales driven by the 2020 pandemic, demand has stabilized and consumers have resumed behavioral patterns prior to this event. However, challenges remain due to input costs, access to capital and tax burdens.
Rising labor and packaging costs have forced companies to seek greater operational efficiencies. Innovations like curbside sales and home delivery services have become standards that optimize revenue per employee. Additionally, many companies have adjusted their operations to work with more conservative cash flow projections, ensuring survival in a challenging environment.
With the normalization of supply chains, concerns shift to geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, price compression, derived from regulation in more states, forces operators to maintain fiscal discipline and learn from those who have managed to “do more with less.”
In recent years, interest rates have risen dramatically, raising financing costs for cannabis operators. However, a rate decline is expected in 2025, easing the burden on both businesses and consumers. This could translate into lower interest costs and consequently greater growth opportunities, especially in emerging markets where affordable capital is essential.
Large companies, faced with the weight of debt and high capital costs, are adopting outsourcing models that allow them to reduce costs without compromising their presence in the market. Inspired by the approach of large producers in Canada, US operators are leveraging partnerships with local companies to introduce products to new markets through revenue-sharing models.
The cannabis industry in the United States still faces a disproportionate tax burden due to Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code. If a federal reclassification were achieved that eliminated this provision, the industry’s cash flow could improve significantly, freeing up to $3.1 billion by 2026. Likewise, the potential increase in corporate taxes following the expiration of the Tax Cuts Act and Jobs 2017 could represent a considerable setback for operators.
Despite the obstacles, the cannabis industry has demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt. A recent survey revealed that 27.3% of national operators are profitable, an improvement from 14.4% in 2023. This increase reflects the commitment of companies to adjust their strategies and find opportunities in a complex environment.
The optimism in the sector is palpable, and rightly so. Although macroeconomic conditions will continue to influence its development, the capacity for innovation, financial discipline and collaboration between actors will be decisive in defining the winners in this space.
In Mexico, the cannabis industry faces a panorama full of possibilities, but also regulatory uncertainty. Although steps have been taken towards the legalization of recreational and medicinal use, bureaucratic barriers and lack of clarity in market rules have limited the development of this sector. If the country manages to consolidate a more accessible and competitive legal framework, it could become a key player in the production and export of cannabis globally. Additionally, the integration of small farmers into the formal market could generate a positive impact on local economies and reduce illicit activities related to this plant.
2025 presents a scenario of challenges and opportunities for the cannabis industry. The key will be the ability of companies to adapt quickly to changing economic and regulatory conditions. The resilience demonstrated so far bodes well, but the path to a fully consolidated market will require a combination of operational efficiency, innovation and pressure on regulators to ensure a competitive and sustainable environment. The industry is ready to evolve, and the next few years will be key in determining its place in the global economy.
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