The Yaqui Valley, once considered the Mexican barn by generating more than 52% of the wheat produced in the country, faces its worst crisis in decades, said César Rafael Ocaña Romo, general director of Nexus Agronegocios.
He assured that thousands of jobs are lost, that the regional economy is in minced and that Mexico will be even more exposed to the dependence and growth of wheat imports, used to manufacture and prepare pasta.
He said that the crisis is not only because of the drought in the Yaqui Valley, but that it is also structural and comes from years ago, when the fall in wheat prices left producers bankrupt.
He pointed out that without subsidies or support to mitigate market risk, production became unsustainable, and then the water problem and the collapse of the Yaqui Valley came, while the authorities look the other way.
He added that the fall in the production of wheat grain in 2024 was significant, since it represented a loss of 24.2% compared to 2023, going from three million 476,000 tons to two million 634,000 tons.
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The reduction is accentuated compared to 2022, since 976,000 tons were lost because that year there were three million 610,800 tons, approximately, he explained.
Ocaña Romo explained that the production of this grain collapses this year due to the lack of planting that is recorded in the northwest area of the country, specifically in the Yaqui Valley.
According to the Agrifood and Fisheries Information Service (SIAP), 16,470 hectares of wheat have been established for the current crop cycle, 178,810 hectares were sown in the previous one, that is, only 9 percent.
The specialist mentioned that crystalline wheat prices have been below production costs, and without government support, producers have absorbed millionaire losses, in addition, investment and risks costs are too high, so most producers, after years of losses, do not have capital, financing or technologies to change crops.
“It has been said that producers should diversify, but this ignores the reality of the Yaqui Valley: Earth property is fragmented and does not allow scale economies, there are no long -term income contracts, which makes it unfeasible to invest in perennial crops such as walnut or citrus and there is no infrastructure or logistics to market large -scale vegetables or fruit trees,” he said.
He pointed out that the Yaqui Valley is not like other regions and that a massive reconversion of crops cannot be made without a complete redesign of the productive model.
He said that the availability of surface water was historically an advantage, but also caught it in a productive grain model that under current conditions today is unfeasible. The ease of access to superficial water, thanks to an efficient prey system, allowed the region to specialize in the production of grains, especially wheat.
However, he said, producers have a highly organized production model, unlike other regions where farmers are disarticulated.
He said that the Yaqui Valley has very consolidated structures, such as the Association of Agricultural Organizations of Southern Sonora, Credit Unions and Cooperatives well organized and that despite these strengths, the crisis is dramatic.
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“This is not just an agricultural crisis, it is a social problem that is exploiting before everyone’s eyes. If the Yaqui Valley continues to collapse, Mexico will depend even more on the importation of wheat, affecting the country’s food security. In addition, the threat of new tariffs by Donald Trump could further aggravate the situation,” he said.
“Our country is losing its capacity for agricultural production and the government still does not react to the challenges imposed by reality: we are a net importer of wheat, and the crisis of the Yaqui valley will aggravate the dependence of the country in this strategic input. It is one thing to produce grains and very different are to produce fruits and vegetables,” he added.
Finally, he emphasized that it is urgent that the federal and state authorities, together with the producers and society in general, recognize the seriousness of the situation in the Yaqui Valley and work in comprehensive solutions that address both the structural problems and the immediate needs of the region.
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