Guillermo Bernal, director of Public Affairs of the American Chamber Mexico (AmCham), assured that the breakup of TMEC is not in the short term, as suggested by an analysis by the Goldman Sachs bank.
“We are not facing a renegotiation that implies the expiration of the treaty, but rather a review process, which is contemplated from the original design of the USMCA,” he commented.
He said that the review is a planned mechanism to evaluate and adjust the USMCA.
“If in this review of the USMCA an agreement is not reached this year, the process will simply go to the next year,” he considered.
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He expressed that even if that were to happen, the TMEC has a long horizon: “There are several years ahead to continue reviewing it without it ceasing to be in force.”
“There is no indication that in the short term the USMCA will break up or become isolated bilateral agreements,” he declared.
A report from the rating agency Goldman Sachs predicts that the USMCA negotiations may lead to a bilateral scheme between Mexico and the United States, leaving Canada out.
The director said that they are seeing, “and this is normal due to the nature of economies,” that the so-called “irritants” are being discussed bilaterally.
Some issues affect one country more than another: Mexico and Canada do not have exactly the same challenges or with the same sectors, and that explains why certain conversations take place between two countries and not necessarily between the three, he noted.
“We operate under a current trilateral treaty, and for that to be fundamentally modified it would have to go through formal processes, including legislative ones, which are not on the table today,” he recalled.
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The USMCA is the appropriate vehicle to continue enhancing the competitiveness of North America, so the review is an opportunity to update and adjust the needs and dynamics of the global economy and North America, concluded Guillermo Bernal.