Analysis groups consulted by Citi México adjusted upwards their forecasts for general and underlying inflation at the end of this year.
The median expectation considers that general inflation will be 3.90% at an annual rate, from the previous forecast of 3.79%, according to the financial group’s most recent biweekly survey published this Wednesday.
Meanwhile, underlying inflation, which eliminates goods and services whose prices are more volatile, and is therefore considered a better indicator to observe the trajectory of prices, would reach 4.40%, and not 4.23%.
The objective of Banxico, the entity in charge of controlling inflation, is for the rate to be 3%, with a tolerance range of one percentage point up and down.
For the end of 2026, the median expectation for general inflation decreased to 3.90% from 3.95%, while for core inflation the forecast rose to 4%, from 3.89%.
Headline inflation rose above market expectations in November, as did the underlying index.
The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) advanced to 3.80% at an annual rate, after having stood at 3.57% in October, according to data from Inegi. Analysts anticipated a rate of 3.70%.
Meanwhile, core inflation stood at 4.43%, higher than the 4.34% expected by the market and the 4.28% in October.
Read: General and underlying inflation in Mexico accelerate more than expected in November
They reduce expectations about the economy in 2026
Analysts slightly cut their forecast for the Mexican economy’s expansion next year to 1.2%, from 1.3% previously. For 2025 they kept it at 0.4%.
Last week, Citi Mexico’s chief economist, Julio Ruíz, said that the financial group’s estimate is that Mexico will barely advance 0.2% in 2025.
Cheapest dollar
The consensus anticipated that the exchange rate at the end of the year would be 18.37 pesos per dollar, from 18.51 in the last survey, and by the end of 2026 it would be 19 units per greenback, from 19.20 in the previous survey.
The analysts consulted continue to expect Banxico to announce a 25 basis point cut to its reference interest rate on Thursday, which would leave it at 7% at the end of the year.
For the end of 2026, the median expectations for the monetary policy rate remained at 6.50%.
With information from Francisco Rivera and Reuters
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