The Mexican economy probably stagnated in the first three months of 2025 as a result of the uncertainty generated by the fluctuating tariff policies of US President Donald Trump, showed a reuters survey on Tuesday.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would have been 0% in the first quarter in terms adjusted by seasonality, according to the average forecast of 15 analysts surveyed by Reuters, compared to the fall of 0.6% in the last three months of 2024.
Analysts have not been warning that the Mexican economy could have contracted again earlier this year, which would imply a technical recession (two consecutive quarters with contractions).
However, the most recent data suggest a better activity than expected, although performance was probably weak.
“The reality is that the country faces a complex economic scenario, where external and internal factors are combining to play against them,” said Cibanco lender.
The economic activity of the country measured through the overall indicator of economic activity grew in February 1% compared to the previous month, the best performance since April 2023, according to unattended figures published by INEGI last week.
The data for February led the Banamex Financial Group to improve its forecast for the Mexican economy in the first quarter, because now it estimates that there will be a zero growth (0%), when in the previous estimate it had calculated a contraction of 0.2%.
Compared to the first quarter of 2024, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the economy to have expanded around 0.6% in the first quarter of 2025, a little above the growth at an annual rate of 0.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of last year.
Last week the chief economist of Citi in Mexico, Julio Ruiz, warned that the country had fallen into technical recession by anticipating that in the first quarter of 2025 the GDP would have fallen 0.4%.
Lee: Mexican economy is in technical recession, Citi warns
INEGI will publish on Wednesday the GDP data of the first quarter.
Another Reuters survey published on Monday suggested that the commercial shock generated by the tariff threats of the United States could cause the Mexican economy to expand only 0.2% this year, compared to the growth of 1.2% of 2024.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund significantly cut its prognosis of economic growth in Mexico.
Lee: IMF foresees that Mexico enters recession in 2025 for commercial tensions of US
With information from Francisco Rivera
Inspy, discover and share. Follow us and find what you are looking for on our Instagram!
