Mexico City.- Private sector specialists improved slightly in June its prognosis of growth of the Mexican economy by 2025 to 0.20%, from the previous estimate of 0.18%, according to the median estimates published on Tuesday by Banxico.
This is the first improvement in their expectations on GDP by 2025 since the November survey, since as of December they began to deteriorate their forecasts.
By 2026, the median of the 43 analysis groups consulted reviewed its provision to 1.40%, from 1.41% of the May survey.
These projections are spread after publishing that Mexico’s GDP grew 0.2% in the first quarter with respect to the previous period, and 0.6% compared to the same quarter of last year, according to unattended figures of the INEGI.
Lee: Banxico sees more inflation for the closure of 2025
Local international and financial organizations project a national economic slowdown by 2025.
On the other hand, experts raised their perspectives of general inflation for the closure of 2025 to an estimate of 4%, from a previous 3.9%.
This forecast comes after inflation was located 4.51% at an annual rate in the first half of June.
By 2026, specialists project that the general inflation is located at 3.74%, less than 3.77%, although even above the 3% goal of the Central Bank.
As factors that could hinder growth in Mexico in the next six months, experts stood out at a general level: governance (35%), external economic conditions (32%) and internal (22%).
At the particular level, the problems of public insecurity (18%), the foreign trade policy (15%), international political instability (9%), uncertainty about the internal economic situation (7%) highlighted.
They also highlighted the absence of structural change in Mexico (6%) and other problems of lack of rule of law (6%).
The analysts improved the perspective of the exchange rate by estimating now that the peso will close 2025 in 20.13 units per dollar, less than the previous projection of 20.50 pesos per US ticket they saw in May.
By 2026, specialists estimate that the peso will be exchanged at 20.70 units per dollar, lower than the estimated 21 pesos per dollar of the previous month.
On the external sector, by 2025 the expectations on the commercial deficit fell to 9,628 million dollars from the previous 10,070 million dollars.
However, the forecast of foreign direct investment (FDI) was reduced to a projection of 32,685 million dollars from an earlier of 33,003 million dollars.
With EFE information
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