The Mexico Plan presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum and with which it seeks to attract 277 billion dollars in investments, was well received by financial sector analysts, although they highlighted that a rule of law and energy supply must be guaranteed for it to be successful.
Gabriel Casillas, Chief Economist for Barclays, described the strategy as “good progress,” although he said that it will be difficult to carry out it in a year where the budget is limited and in which the budget deficit is intended to be cut from 5.9% of GDP to 3.9. %.
“Many people have said that they are good intentions. I think it goes beyond good intentions (…), I see it as well thought out (…), but it does need details,” he commented in an interview.
He indicated that many of the goals of Plan Mexico require public funding from which it is not known where it will come.
I describe the strategy as “a long pants plan” and a “significant improvement” compared to what happened in the AMLO administration.
“You can see the objectives aligned with President-elect Trump, to have a little more national and regional content,” he said.
He mentioned that there are conditions for Mexico to enter the top 10 of the strongest economies, as the Sheinbaum government wants, although he anticipated that it would be achieved rather by a weakening of European and Asian economies.
The country is in position number 12 worldwide, according to information from the president and the World Bank.
“It is one thing to be able to be in the top 10, to be in the top 10 of the economies and another thing is for Mexico to really be able to get that GDP, to be able to increase that GDP, with the great potential that Mexico has, which has been talked about so much. and so little has been seen,” he questioned.
He said that there are also emerging economies, such as Brazil, that are in a situation of fiscal prudence, which would make it easier for Mexico to advance at the top.
He mentioned that the country is attractive for investors, despite President Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on Mexican exports, although he stressed that the judicial reform will take its toll on the investment that Mexico receives.
Pamela Díaz Loubet, Chief Economist of BNP Paribas Mexico, expressed that Plan Mexico improves the economic development proposals put forward in the last government, although she highlighted that pending issues such as the electricity market must be resolved.
“It is a much more active strategy and at a national level, which at least allows us to have a roadmap around what Mexico is going to do to be able to capitalize on the benefits,” he said.
He explained that in order to enter the top 10 economies, it is necessary to address the energy sector, one of the issues that has come to the fore so much when making investment decisions in Mexico.
“Rule of law issues, for example, have also stood out lately among the actors that influence investment decisions, and it is not just about what Mexico is doing to be able to reach this global top 10,” he said.
He commented that the Sheinbaum government must review how the approved reforms will be carried out, and above all how the relationship with the Trump administration will be conducted with a view to the review of the USMCA in 2026.
“2025 is going to be a year in which many rules will be defined, both internal and external, and we have to wait to see if with this definition of debts and budget we can see a reactivation of investment in Mexico, and with “This is precisely why we are getting closer to what Plan Mexico is proposing,” he noted.
Gabriela Soní, director of Investment Strategies at UBS Mexico, described it as positive that the need to promote private investment as a key driver for economic development is recognized.
“However, there is skepticism regarding the possibility of achieving the very ambitious goals that the plan proposes, especially in a context marked by uncertainty derived from constitutional reforms, the risk of tariffs and the upcoming review of the USMCA,” he said.
I explain that what really drives investment is not incentives or sectoral promotion, but fundamental conditions, such as respect for the rule of law and macroeconomic stability.
“Without clear progress in these areas, the plan’s impact on investment flows will likely be positive, but limited,” he mentioned.
He added that the plan lacks clarity in essential aspects, such as the magnitude of the planned investments.
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“This lack of detail raises doubts about the viability of its implementation, especially in a context where the government plans to carry out significant fiscal consolidation,” he recalled.
He indicated that the balance between prioritizing strategic investments and meeting fiscal goals will be a challenge that could limit the scope of the plan.
“From a geopolitical perspective, Plan Mexico could contribute to relaxing trade tensions with the United States. By prioritizing production within North America and reducing imports from China, the plan sends a positive signal of the strategic effort to strengthen the bilateral relationship and reduce trade frictions,” he said.
He said that although Plan Mexico recognizes the importance of private investment and represents a step in the right direction, its success will depend on generating confidence among investors and its integration into a realistic fiscal framework.
The Inter-American Development Bank analyzes the scope of the plan. “At this time we continue analyzing the scope,” he said after a request from Forbes Mexico.
Recently, the institution chaired by Ilan Goldfajn offered the Sheinbaum government to finance the fight against organized crime and thus promote the development of the economy. It also granted 14,000 million dollars that will be allocated to projects.
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