Analysts consulted by CITI reduced their forecast for the Mexican economy in 2025 for sixth, and now they consider that 0.1% and not 0.2% will advance.
By 2026, the consensus of the 34 analysis groups consulted by the financial group expects the economy to recover at 1.5%.
The data of the most recent biweekly survey of Citi are given in the midst of the fears for the impact of the tariff policies of President Donald Trump.
Financial groups and international organizations have deteriorated their expectations on the Mexican economy for this year for the commercial policy effect of the Republican president. The IMF estimated in April that Mexico will contract 0.3%.
The Government of Claudia Sheinbaum forecasts however that the Mexican economy will expand between 1.5% and 2.3%.
Lee: IMF foresees that Mexico enters recession in 2025 for commercial tensions of US
On Monday Sheinbaum said his government maintains an active strategy to strengthen the domestic market.
“I do not want to compromise a specific figure (on GDP in 2025). The relevant thing is that we do not share the pessimistic visions of some international financial organizations. We are actively working not only for growth, but to improve the living conditions of Mexicans,” he said.
He added that GDP is not the only relevant indicator for its administration, since the main objective of its government is to guarantee the welfare of the population.
The Secretary of the Treasury, Edgar Amador Zamora, said that the strategy promoted by the government can grow the Mexican economy by up to 0.7 percentage points, due to a greater impulse to employment and national production, specifically in the manufacturing sector.
According to Citi’s survey, projections for general inflation at the end of 2025 rose to 3.80%, from the previous 3.78%, while the underlying inflation forecast rose to 3.81% from 3.80%.
By the end of 2026, the median for general inflation is 3.80%, marginally higher than in the last 3.79%survey, while the expectation for underlying inflation remained at 3.70%.
The consensus projected a cheaper dollar towards the end of the year when the estimate at 20.80 pesos per green ticket, from the previous 20.93.
By the end of 2026, the exchange rate was located at 21.23 pesos per dollar, three cents less than in the previous biweekly.
The majority of the participants hope that on May 15 Banxico cuts in half a percentage point their reference interest rate.
Inspy, discover and share. Follow us and find what you are looking for on our Instagram!
