Financial analysts reacted this Tuesday to the threat of the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, to impose a 25% tariff on his main trading partners, Mexico and Canada, when he assumes his second term in January, a measure that could trigger a war commercial.
Mexico is currently the largest trading partner of the United States, representing 15.8% of total trade as of September, followed by Canada, with 13.9%.
Trump also threatened “an additional 10% tariff, on top of any other additional tariffs” on imports from China, the third largest trading partner, which accounts for 11.9%.
CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“We believe that investors could be underestimating the impact of Trump’s policies on Mexico. “We suspect that Trump’s tariffs will affect Mexican stocks by dampening optimism about nearshoring and limiting investment in the country,” said Giulia Bellicoso, markets economist.
“We anticipate Trump starting another trade war,” he added.
Read: Companies reinforce currency hedges after Trump’s tariff threat
CIBANCO
“We believe that Trump’s announcement is a tactic to negotiate with these three countries, his main trading partners, from a position of strength, taking into account that imposing tariffs would also be negative for the US economy,” he said in a note.
“Therefore, the final outcome of the tariff threat could be less severe once negotiations with the respective parties are concluded,” he added.
BASE BANK
“The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be reviewed in July 2026, which is expected to increase risk aversion, especially in Mexico, as both US and Canadian officials have mentioned that they would prefer bilateral agreements,” he noted. .
He added that the threat of tariffs “increases the likelihood that Trump’s second term will be more radical, which represents a risk for Mexico’s export sector.”
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN
“As in previous instances of tariff threats, the exchange rate will play its role as a buffer reflecting the risks arising from a persistent change in the trade relationship,” said Armando Armenta, senior economist at the asset manager.
“However, commercial ties between USMCA members are deep, and a cooperation agreement on the control of illegal drug trafficking, labor migration, border protection and trade in goods could quickly reverse this situation,” he noted.
Read: Tariff war between Mexico and the US will only increase inflation, experts warn
MOODY’S ANALYTICS
“The Mexican economy will be one of the most exposed to the negative effects of President Trump’s economic policies,” he stated.
He predicted lower growth, particularly in the next two years, as investment, remittances and the financial sector could be affected by volatility.
The firm indicated that it reduced its forecast for Mexico’s GDP for next year to 0.6%, from a previous expectation of around 1%. It also projected growth of about 1.6% in 2026, compared to a previous estimate of 2.5%.
Read: Moody’s cuts Mexico’s GDP forecast in 2025 by half, to 0.6%, before Trump
With information from Reuters
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