Private analysts consulted by Citi Mexico adjusted downward their GDP growth projection for 2024 in Mexico.
The consensus now foresees that the Mexican economy will advance 1.5%, compared to the 1.6% previously projected, according to the most recent survey carried out by the financial group.
The forecasts remained unchanged for 2025 and 2026, which stand at 1% and 1.8%, respectively.
If the forecast for 2024 is confirmed, it would mean a slowdown from the 3.2% recorded in 2023.
The exercise was presented one day after US President Donald Trump announced the possibility that starting February 1 he would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.
Lee: US tariffs would slow Mexico’s GDP to 0.6% in 2025: Moody’s
According to its second survey of the year, now among 30 analysis groups from different banks, brokerage houses and other ‘traders’ and ‘brokers’, the highest GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 1.7%, predicted by Barclays, Citi, Itau BBA, Masari Casa de Bolsa Natixis and Signum Research.
While BBVA contrasted with a minimum of 1.2%, comparable to the latest forecast expected by Banco de México and far from the Government’s projection above 2%.
The report also detailed that survey participants expect a 25 basis point cut in Banxico’s reference interest rate at its next meeting in February.
The median estimate for the interest rate at the end of 2024 remains at 8.5%, “with estimates ranging from 7.5% to 9%,” while for 2026 they were located at 7.5%.
Meanwhile, the Citi survey maintained expectations for general inflation for 2025 at a perspective of 3.91%, the same as the previous biweekly edition.
Meanwhile, for core inflation, which excludes high volatility products such as energy, analysts expected it to reduce slightly to 3.68%, from 3.71% in the last survey, a percentage closer to Banxico’s 3% target rate. .
The survey also kept its expectation regarding the peso unchanged and anticipated an exchange rate of 20.95 units per dollar at the end of 2025.
By 2026, the consensus predicts that the exchange rate will be 21.49 pesos per dollar, a little lower than the 21.48 expected in its last edition.
With information from EFE
Get inspired, discover and share. Follow us and find what you are looking for on our Instagram!
