No reprieve is coming to save Apple stock in the short term, according to Moffett Nathanson. Despite slumping more than 23% so far in 2025, analyst Craig Moffett said stock in the iPhone maker is “still a long way from out of the woods.” Moffett reiterated a sell rating on Apple on Monday, slashing his price target to $141 per share from $184. The Wall Street researcher’s forecast implies more than 28% downside ahead, from Apple’s $196.98 close last Thursday. The average Wall Street analyst’s price target stands at $241, according to FactSet data. Moffett also cut his longer-term earnings estimate for Apple as a result of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the continued trade war with China. Although he raised his short-term estimate a touch, to $7.20 for 2025 from $7.18, that was due to an expectation that consumers will rush to beat the effect of tariffs, an effect that Moffett said won’t persist. The rest of the Street is at $7.26 for fiscal 2025, which ends in September. For fiscal 2026, Moffett now forecasts full-year earnings per share of only $7.06 per share, down from $7.87 and far below the Street’s $8.00 consensus. “Yes, the worst-case scenario for Apple was (temporarily) taken off the table when the Administration paused reciprocal tariffs for smartphones on April 11th,” Moffett said. “As the Administration made clear, Apple imports from China will still bear 20% tariffs, a level that would have been unimaginable just a month ago. And even iPhone imports from India (and watches and earbuds from Vietnam) will face minimum tariffs of 10%.” Since Moffett’s downgrade of Apple to sell in January, the stock’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has fallen to roughly 27 times from 32 times. Moffett said Apple’s P/E could fall further given that consensus estimates “have barely budged” and have yet to fully account for the troubles looming over Tim Cook’s company. AAPL YTD mountain Apple stock in 2025. Apple stock has been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs on China because the company relies on China’s supply chain to manufacture the iPhone and other products. Despite Apple seemingly getting some relief after Trump exempted phones, computers and chips from the highest tariffs, the stock has continued to sell off. Shares were more than 2% lower on Monday. “There are no easy answers here. Apple is inextricably tied to opposing forces at the center of the trade tensions. China is the beating heart of the global electronics supply chain,” Moffett explained. “Paying a fortune in tariffs or paying a fortune in rearchitecting supply chains only to finish with much higher costs is a lose-lose choice.” Trump’s affinity for tariffs is not the only headwind facing Apple. Moffett said the company is behind its peers in the race to make money from artificial intelligence, and is also falling short of sparking a strong upgrade cycle for the iPhone, Apple’s premier product. He also cautioned that Google parent Alphabet’s antitrust debacle could also serve as an additional challenge to Apple. “As a reminder, the royalties Apple collects from Google account for more than a quarter of Apple’s operating income and Judge Mehta has already deemed those payments to be illegal,” Moffett said. “The Trump Administration has notably declined to withdraw the prior DOJ’s recommendation that those payments cease.” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
