The safest kind of bet is one you already know the outcome of. It’s the perfect kind of bet for a guy on the sidelines, like, for example, Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson.
On the same day telecoms giant AT&T dropped its bomb on Downtown Dallas via news of its plans to relocate to Plano, Johnson was talking to the New York Post about Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration.
“What was already a trickle is going to turn into a flood of individuals and companies who have called New York home for a long time, moving to Dallas,” he told the outlet.
That’s some impressive reading of the tea leaves. One wonders what gave him the idea. Maybe the half-built campuses for the world’s biggest banks rising in his backyard clued him in.
It’s 2026. We’re about 15 years into the rise of North Texas as a corporate relo destination — so many years into the trend that it’s started dwindling.
Meanwhile, the urban core of the city that elected Johnson was dealt a catastrophic blow on Monday. AT&T announced plans to build a new campus in Plano, leaving a 2 million-square-foot hole in Downtown Dallas’ already struggling office market as soon as late 2028. Before the announcement, vacancy rates in the urban core were averaging 33 percent, according to Partners Real Estate.
Gov. Greg Abbott didn’t name Johnson, but seemed to take aim at the mayor when discussing who should shoulder the blame for the catastrophic move: “Local leaders, it’s their responsibility to ensure that homeless people are not endangering their citizens,” Abbott said at a campaign event in Fort Worth.
The same day, the future of Neiman Marcus’ downtown flagship store got murkier. Saks Global CEO Marc Metrick stepped down as rumors swirled about a potential upcoming bankruptcy filing.
In early 2025, Saks announced plans to close the landmark store at 1618 Main Street, then repeatedly delayed the move after pushback from city leaders, stating it would remain open beyond the 2025 holiday season as talks continued with the city on a potential reimagining of the nine-story historic property.
A third grenade hit Downtown Dallas last week when Todd Interests’ Shawn Todd told the Dallas Morning News he’s handing back the keys to The National, the skyscraper he spent $460 million converting into a mixed-use project. Starwood Capital Group is foreclosing on the property after providing a $230 million refi loan in 2023.
The building at 1401 Elm Street is one of the largest office conversion projects in the country, a poster child for adaptive reuse as a method of breathing new life into crumbling downtown office districts. Todd secured $150 million in state and local incentives to complete the ambitious project, which opened in TK.
“We’ve been committed to downtown,” Todd said. “We’ve been committed for 20 years. In 35 years, our firm has never lost money — this is the first year that it’s happened.”
The smartest syndicator in the room
The world of real estate syndication has a reputation. Operators are seen as unsophisticated and inexperienced, treating real estate investment like social media influencing. Jon Venetos seemed different. The Lurin Capital founder came up in prestigious hedge funds before pivoting to real estate, but he ended up meeting the same fate as his peers in the space. Since the spring of 2025, he’s faced a crush of default lawsuits, foreclosures and receivership appointments; he’s also fighting allegations of fraud from lenders and former employees.
New year, same distress
When it seems like there’s nothing left for Tides Equities to lose, the embattled syndicator gets hit with another foreclosure notice. This time, the firm owned by Sean Kia and Ryan Andrade could lose Tides at Highland Meadows, a 650-unit apartment complex at 11330 Amanda Lane in Dallas. The $76.4 million loan tied to the property is a chunk of the $826 million in troubled CRE debt that were flagged for foreclosure auction this month, according to Roddy’s Foreclosure Listing Service. The number represents a dip from December’s high of $911 million in debt headed to auction, but it’s still far above prior months when the value of debt flagged for foreclosure hovered around $600 million.
River Oaks dominates in Houston’s top luxury deals
Of the 10 most expensive homes sold in Harris County in 2025, five were within one square mile of each other in Houston’s River Oaks neighborhood. The gates estate at 2110 River Oaks Boulevard topped the list. It’s one of the 31 River Oaks homes designed by legendary architect John Staub between 1924 and 1958. It was last listed for $18.9 million, about $2,000 per square foot. Compass Real Estate agent Laura Sweeney represented the buyer and seller.
Google turns on at Austin’s Sail Tower
At long last, Google has moved into Austin’s 35-story, 804,000-square-foot Sail Tower after signing a full-building lease at the building in 2019. The tower, at 601 West Second Street in Downtown Austin, had been conspicuously vacant since its completion in 2022, a situation estimated to have cost Google about $53 million annually in rent. Despite having a full-building lease, Google is marketing the top six floors for sublease, with Digital Realty Trust identified as a potential subtenant.
