The Banamex financial group revised downwards its growth expectation for the Mexican economy in 2025 to 0.2%, from the previous 0.4%, after the dissemination of weak data this Friday by Inegi.
GDP contracted 0.3% in the third quarter compared to the previous period, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the institute.
Compared to the same period last year, the Mexican economy fell 0.2%, the first decline at an annual rate since the first quarter of 2021 (1.6%).
While in the accumulated of the first nine months of the year, the GDP advanced only 0.1%, less than the preliminary data of 0.2% from Inegi itself, according to original figures.
Banamex stated in an analysis that the Mexican economy has slowed significantly since the end of 2023.
He detailed that although a slight improvement was observed in economic activity in the first half of 2025, the weakness of the industrial sector, especially in construction and manufacturing, led to a contraction in the third quarter.
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The secondary or industrial sector of the economy fell 1.5% compared to the previous quarter, and 2.7% at an annual rate.
Within this sector, construction contracted 3.3%, the deepest since the second quarter of 2020 (30.4%), in the midst of the Covid-19 contingency. At an annual rate, the drop was 4.6% and there were four quarters with declines.
Manufacturing, another component of the secondary sector, fell 1.3% in quarterly terms, the sharpest drop since the second quarter of 2020 (22.5%). Compared to the same period last year, the manufacturing sector fell 1.8%, the deepest contraction since the 5.5% in the third quarter of 2020.
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Expect moderate recovery
However, Banamex indicated, the outlook for the determinants of economic growth allows us to foresee a moderate recovery.
He estimated that exports will remain a driver of activity, although with a slightly lower contribution in 2026 due to lower dynamism in GDP and manufacturing in the United States.
He projected a reduction in public spending underspending in the fourth quarter of 2025, and a much less restrictive fiscal stance for 2026.
In addition, he anticipated a stabilization of oil activity, so the sector would stop hindering growth.
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He pointed out that although uncertainty remains high, its moderation and the improvement in the general environment compared to that which prevailed in the first half of 2025, will allow a gradual recovery of private investment and employment, and estimated that real salaries will continue to grow at a higher rate than the historical average.
The change in Banxico’s monetary policy stance, from restrictive to neutral, will also contribute to the gradual recovery of consumption and investment.
Therefore, it forecast quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, he considered that the downward revision for the accumulated of the first three quarters has an arithmetic effect on the projection for the year as a whole, in addition to the fact that the IGAE figures, also published this Friday, show less dynamism than previously considered at the end of the third quarter, hence the reduction of the estimate for the entire year.
The Inegi published that the Global Indicator of Economic Activity, a tool that measures the economy in monthly terms, contracted 0.6% compared to the previous period, the largest contraction since the 0.9% last December, according to seasonally adjusted figures. At an annual rate, the drop was also 0.6%.
The economy in 2024 grew 1.2%. Banamex maintained its GDP estimate for 2026 at 1.5%.
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