Banamex maintained its forecast of zero economic growth for Mexico in 2025 due to the unpredictability of President Trump and its commercial policy erratic, however, if a contraction of GDP is confirmed in the first quarter of 0.5%, the estimation of stagnation for the whole year would be adjusted to the decline.
He recalled that he recently reviewed his forecast for GDP of the first quarter of -0.1% to -0.5%, considering the overall indicator of the economic activity of January and appropriate recent indicators.
He indicated that if this estimate is confirmed at the end of April with the preliminary publication of INEGI, there would be an adjustment down around 0.3 percentage points on the current 0% forecast for the whole year.
Lee: Trump leaves open tariff pauses open
The Banamex economic analysis area explained in a report that its prognosis of stagnation by 2025 is subject to that negative inertia of the first quarter and other factors still very uncertain.
He added that beyond the real effect of tariffs on the world economy, and, despite the fact that some are paused or adjusted, Trump’s commercial political erratic is already damaging the global economy and its perspectives.
He explained that since July he has cut his growth projection of Mexico by 2025 in more than one percentage point, placing it in the current 0%.
“The greatest proportion of that decrease was due to the uncertainty generated by Trump’s policies. In this sense, we consider that the above will continue to negatively influence growth in Mexico and the rest of the world,” he said.
Lee: Mexico is between advantages and recession risks after Trump’s tariffs
He said that uncertainty has been very marginally attenuated for Mexico with the Republican signs that will respect the TMEC.
Banamex pointed out that its base scenario for growth in the US has upward light risks to some materialization of import substitution and before a possible expansionist fiscal policy (increased public spending and/or tax reduction).
However, he indicated that they seem to dominate the downward risks, such as minor exports to reprisals that EU can apply to the rest of the world and the lowest global growth; A decrease in the investment greater than that estimated due to the effects of uncertainty, and lower consumption in the face of risks of price increases and loss of wealth of households.
Although the Financial Group continues to estimate the US growth in 1.9% by 2025, consider that the risk balance is biased down: “This, in turn, implies downward risks for national activity.”
He added that the effective tariff that Mexico would pay would be 9.1% when considering the exceptions for Mexican exports, the percentage of shipments to the US, compliance with the TMEC and the
Exceptions announced on April 2.
He pointed out that Mexico’s relative position against the rest of the world remains very favorable, since the US effective tariff for the rest of the planet is estimated at 22.8%.
“However, it is worth noting that, if the tariffs announced for auto parts at the beginning of May, the effective tariff that Mexico would be raised, given the importance of these in the commercial relationship with the USA,” he said.
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