The financial group Base warned that the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods by the United States would imply a very pessimistic scenario, since exports would fall, foreign direct investment would decrease, GDP would face contractions and the national economy would fall into decline. recession.
He added that the exchange rate would also exceed 23 pesos per dollar, inflation would rise above 5%, Banco de México would be unable to continue cutting the interest rate and the probability of cuts in the credit rating of the sovereign debt would increase. .
The financial institution explained that in 2024, exports to the United States accumulate an increase of 4.02% and to Canada of 6.98%, which contrasts with exports to the rest of the world that accumulate a contraction of 0.83%.
He added that the United States and Canada explain 86.3% of Mexico’s total exports and total exports represent 36.9% of GDP, according to data for the first half of 2024, and its growth is currently supported by trade with its North American partners. .
Base added that Mexico received a total of 589,525 million dollars in foreign direct investment between 2006 and 2024, of which 41.25% came from the United States and 8.81% from Canada, placing it in first and third place respectively, and explaining in together 50.06% of the total foreign direct investment.
This implies that in a scenario in which strong tariffs are imposed on Mexico from the United States, the growth of total exports and Foreign Direct Investment would be at risk, increasing the probability of a recession and the manufacturing industry would be the most affected.
Base highlighted that until September 2023, the export manufacturing industry employed 2,932,291 people, this is 13.04% of the formal employment registered with the IMSS on the same date.
Under this context, the GDP in 2025 could show a contraction close to 2% and after Donald Trump’s announcement to impose tariffs on day 1 of his administration, it is possible that growth projections for Mexico will be cut, which raises the probability of cuts in the credit rating of sovereign debt.
For the financial group, a mirror response of imposing tariffs on the United States, as suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum, would harm Mexico and would not convince Trump to set aside his objective of solving the immigration and drug crisis.
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