BBVA warned a contraction in 2025 of the economy of Mexico, its main market, while strengthening their financing to state companies, such as Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and Federal Electricity Commission (CFE).
Eduardo Osuna, general director of BBVA Mexico, said during the presentation of results of the first quarter that the country is heading for a year of economic fall.
The main cause, he said, is the decrease in public investment after the conclusion of large government projects and a slowdown in national and foreign private investment.
According to Osuna, although internal consumption continues along a growth path, driven by remittances and salary mass, it fails to compensate for the reduction in productive investment.
In this sense, the Bank anticipated changes in its perspectives, although it does not define them yet, and highlighted the importance of dispeling local and global uncertainties to favor a recovery in 2026.
Carlos Serrano, chief economist of BBVA Mexico, supported this diagnosis, highlighting that inflation is already at levels similar to those prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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However, he warned that, although a technical recession is not yet configured, as other entities anticipate, the slowdown in the investment is evident, exacerbated by factors such as uncertainty about judicial reform and commercial negotiations with the United States.
“The most relevant, beyond the size of the fall, will be our ability to make 2026 a recovery as soon as possible. This is linked to dissipate the uncertainties that generate this pause in investment,” said Osuna.
The Bank warned that, although the federal government has shown commitment to fiscal discipline, the margin for countercyclical policies is limited by the lack of fiscal space.
However, BBVA considered that the execution of programs such as the Mexico Plan, the economic strategy of President Claudia Sheinbaum, could cushion part of the negative effects if it focuses on infrastructure projects and investment attraction.
More credit to Pemex and CFE
In parallel to this panorama, BBVA Mexico reported an increase of 35% its credit line to the state Pemex and CFE in the first quarter of 2025.
In the case of Pemex, the financing is concentrated in factoring lines, for suppliers and others, while in CFE it covers from working capital to long -term investment projects.
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He also warned that the performance of these entities is critical for public finances in the current context.
With EFE information
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