If 2025 taught us anything, it is that predicting markets is like trying to predict the weather in any city in the region: you can go out prepared for rain and end up with sunstroke. But hey, here we go again.
The markets in 2026 will continue to dance to the rhythm of three main musicians: interest rates (which finally seem to stabilize after the marathon of increases), artificial intelligence (which is no longer futuristic, it is literally present), and geopolitics (because when not?).
The S&P 500 is above 6,700 points in 2025 after a rally driven by tech euphoria. By 2026, we expect consolidation rather than explosion. Valuations are stretched like yoga at 6am, but there is money looking for a home and the “soft landing” narrative is still alive.
The trends that rule (and those that are going strong)
IA Everywhere: We are no longer talking about whether AI is going to change everything, but rather how to monetize that. AI-powered payments are transforming marketing: imagine ads that not only know you, but process your purchase before you finish thinking about it. Scary and brilliant at the same time. Fintechs like Stripe and others are integrating language models for conversational payments. In this case, a phrase like “Hey Alexa, pay my landlord” will be as normal as ordering an Uber.
Robotaxis and Autonomy: 2026 will be the year where autonomous cars stop being Elon’s promises and become a commercial reality in select cities. Waymo is climbing, Tesla continues to promise (surprise), and Chinese companies like BYD are coming in strong. This is not just tech, it is infrastructure, insurance, and an entire ecosystem worth billions.
Crypto: Adolescence Ends: After the Bitcoin ETF post-approval rally in 2024 and consolidation in 2025, cryptos in 2026 face their maturity test. Bitcoin probably ranges between $80,000 and $120,000 (yes, wide range, but that’s what it is). The interesting thing is not the price, it is the infrastructure: tokenization of real assets, DeFi integrated with traditional finance, and stablecoins as a legitimate payment method. The blockchain stops being a promise and becomes financial ‘plumbing’.
RWA (Real World Assets): The tokenization of bonds, real estate and commodities will be the true silent revolution. BlackRock is already doing it with BUIDL, and in 2026 we will see more institutional enter. It’s less sexy than a memecoin, but infinitely more relevant.
What we learned in 2025: lessons for the humble
- “This time is different”, it is never different – Bubbles are still bubbles, they just change their disguise. Ratings matter, eventually.
- Concentration kills – The 2025 rally was supported by the “Magnificent 7”. When three companies are 20% of the S&P, it is not diversification, it is blind faith.
- High rates didn’t break everything – Contrary to the promised apocalypse, the economy endured rates of 5%+. It turns out that solid companies… are solid.
- Crypto and regulation can coexist – Bitcoin ETFs did not kill the decentralized spirit. In fact, they brought liquidity and legitimacy. Who would have thought.
- The AI is real, the valuations are crazy too – Yes, AI is changing the world and not all companies with “AI” in their pitch are worth what they say.
- Geopolitics > Fundamentals (sometimes) – A presidential tweet can move markets more than 10 earnings reports. Welcome to the 21st century.
- Patience pays, panic collects – Those who sold in the March and August corrections missed the closing rally. Time in the market > market timing.
The moral of the story
Markets are, in essence, a mirror of our human nature: greedy in the rises, fearful in the falls, and forgetful between cycles. Technology changes, narratives evolve, but psychology remains. In 2026, as always, those who understand that investing is not predicting the future, but preparing for multiple possible futures will win.
True wealth is not in getting the next 10x right, but in building a portfolio that survives your own mistakes. Because in the end, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent… or sane.
So yes, buy Bitcoin if you want, invest in AI, bet on robotaxis. But please also have bonuses, cash, and some humility. The market has a peculiar way of ‘accommodating’ the arrogant.
The moral closes with what really matters: it is not being the smartest, but the most prepared. Because in the end, as they say, in the markets it is not whoever knows the most who wins, but whoever best manages what he does not know.
This article was originally published in the print version of Forbes Mexico in December 2025.
The author has participated in the financial market, basically in the Stock Market since 1983. He is a graduate of the Diploma course in DEFI and Crypto at Learning Heroes in Spain. It has been operating in the cryptocurrency market for 2 years, both spot, stake and pools. Contact:
(email protected)
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