Just as Novo Nordisk showed signs of a recovery, another cold shower hit investors as the drugmaker surprise pre-released its 2026 forecast late Tuesday, sending shares tumbling.
Novo Nordisk’s stock plummeted 17% in Copenhagen early Wednesday, tracking losses seen in its American depositary shares on Tuesday and more than wiping out gains seen so far this year.
“People should expect that it goes down before it comes back up,” CEO Mike Doustdar told CNBC’s “Early Edition Europe” on Wednesday, highlighting the headwinds of significantly lower U.S. pricing on its best-selling weight loss drug Wegovy.
“We did not go into the details of the magnitude of that – with the guidance we are giving that range.”
It follows Novo’s guidance for 2026 sales and operating profit both declining between 5% and 13%, far worse than analysts had expected.
Barclays analysts said some might suggest the guide to be a “kitchen sink” that will be beaten, “though we note the same was said last year, and this proved not to be the case.”
In July last year, Novo slashed guidance for 2025, citing a challenging U.S. market, leading to shares to crash 23% on the day.
‘U-shaped recovery’
“We are creating affordability for the patients, millions of patients that are right now in need of GLP-1 products, but simply could not afford it. To do that short term, you have to take a headwind. But of course, there’s a very long tailwind for years to come,” Doustdar told CNBC.
The company has flagged challenges around pricing in its biggest market, the U.S., due to both competition from compounding pharmacies that sell cheaper knockoff versions of semaglutide – the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic – as well as from chief rival U.S.-based Eli Lilly.
But optimism grew early this year as the launch of the Wegovy pill in the U.S. went better than even Novo had expected. “We knew it’s going to be the best in terms of efficacy of 16.6% we had expected it to do well, but we did not think that after four weeks of introduction, we will have 170,000 people on the pill,” said Doustdar.
“No matter how well it does in the initial period, the price hit on the existing business trumps, basically, the great pill launch that we’ve had.”
While Novo has worked to manage expectations going into its full-year results, where it also announced guidance for the year to come, the market did not see this coming.
“The question becomes if the recovery from here, [will be] a Nike swoosh or U-shaped recovery,” noted HSBC’s Rajesh Kumar.
A company in crisis?
Last year was a historic one for Novo in more ways than one.
Shares fell nearly 50% in 2025, marking the company’s worst year on record. The company appointed its first non-Danish CEO as well as naming a former CEO, Lars Rebien Sørensen, as chair of the board in what has been described as an unprecedented power grab. That position added to his existing duties, which include serving as chair of Novo’s controlling shareholder, Novo Nordisk Foundation.
Novo also inked a landmark deal with U.S. President Donald Trump to lower prices on its blockbuster drugs on Medicare and Medicaid and offer them directly to consumers at a discount on a website the Trump administration is launching called TrumpRx.gov.
The new Wegovy pill starting dose is marketed at only $149, a fraction of what Novo sold the injectable version for only a year ago. Patent expiries in some ex-U.S. markets in 2026 will also hit sales.
Additionally, Novo’s U.S. chief David Moore, who led the launch of the pill, is leaving the company for personal reasons, Novo said. He is replaced by Jamie Miller, formerly with U.S. health insurer UnitedHealth Group.
When asked on Wednesday if Novo Nordisk was in crisis, Doustdar decisively answered “no.”
“While we acknowledge 2025 presented significant challenges affecting our performance and share price, those adversaries have also made us more resilient,” he said on a call with journalists.