By Manuel Aguilar*
In a complex environment, adapting is no longer enough: you have to anticipate
Mexico is going through a period of high uncertainty that tests the ability to adapt companies and entrepreneurs. Insecurity, regulatory changes, talent scarcity, technological disruption, inflation and financial volatility make up a challenging and volatile environment. Navigating it requires strategic vision and reaction capacity.
Insecurity: constant risk
The costs associated with insecurity are increasing. The theft of logistics routes, extortion and impact on the operation raise expenses, complicate asset assurance and deteriorate productivity. This generates defensive decisions in investment and location.
Regulatory uncertainty: unclear rules
Frequent changes in legal frameworks and lack of clarity in key sectors such as energy, health or foreign trade stop investment and hinder medium -term planning. Regulatory ambiguity forces more resources to compliance and legal advice.
Talent and rotation gap
The specialized talent deficit is one of the main bottlenecks for growth. Technology skills, data analysis and global trade are scarce, and competition for key profiles has intensified. Rotation, especially in technical positions, increases costs and compromises operational continuity.
Technology: Change does not expect
The adoption of disruptive technologies such as AI, automation and predictive analysis progresses rapidly. Companies that fail to integrate these tools strategically will be lagging behind. Digital transformation is no longer a differentiator, it is an indispensable minimum.
Inflation, exchange rate and high rates
Although inflation has yielded, prices are still pressured, affecting margins in sectors such as food, transport and services. The exchange rate has shown strength, but volatility remains present, influenced by the rate differential between Mexico (8%) and EU (4.5%). This impacts the cost of financing and investment decisions.
Foreign trade and bilateral tensions
The next review of the TMEC (SEP-OT) generates concern. Topics such as rules of origin, labor policies and environmental measures could be friction points. With an average tariff of 12% in markets outside the treaty, any adjustment would have deep implications for export sectors.
In addition, tensions in the bilateral relationship with the US – by migratory, energy and electoral issues – add uncertainty to the foreign trade environment.
How to answer?
1) Model economic and regulatory scenarios to anticipate impacts.
2) Invest in talent and reskilling programs.
3) Accelerate technological adoption with focus on efficiency and resilience.
4) Diversify markets and supply chains to reduce risks.
5) Strengthen compliance and cybersecurity, strategic pillars against complex environments.
Conclusion
Uncertainty will not disappear, but can become a competitive advantage if it is managed with intelligence and agility. Mexican companies must build adaptive abilities, integrate technology with strategic vision and strengthen their resilience to not only survive, but to lead in uncertain times.
About the author:
*Manuel Aguilar is a director of Bakertilly Mexico.
LinkedIn: https://mx.linkedin.com/in/manuel-aguilar-bt
The opinions expressed are only the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and the editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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