When the Trump administration sent a team of US special forces to extract Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, the operation fell short of large-scale regime change.
Despite years of U.S. antagonism toward the Venezuelan government, the broader political coalition led by Maduro was able to remain intact under the leadership of his long-time ally, Delcy Rodríguez. And now he apparently has the tacit support of President Donald Trump, who has backed a transition to Maduro’s deputy rather than pushing for opposition leader María Corina Machado to take over.
Thus, this marks a new phase—rather than an end—of the left-wing political ideology of Chavismo.
A Bolivarian revolution in constant evolution?
Now in its third leadership, in the hands of Rodríguez, Chavismo has already experienced changes since Hugo Chávez launched it in Venezuela.
Chávez himself drew extensive inspiration from Fidel Castro’s Cuba to foster the ideology, which has governed Venezuela since Chávez came to power in the 1998 presidential election.
In particular, he took from the Cuban model state controls and a combination of socialism with a brand of Latin American nationalism and vehement anti-imperialism. This included a broad social welfare platform and programs to distribute land and money to the poor, financed by Venezuela’s vast oil reserves while the price of crude oil was high.
All of this is anathema to much of the political beliefs of the United States Republican Party, especially in Florida, and clashes with both the MAGA wing and the circle of anti-left foreign policy hawks that surround the president.
Therefore, the Trump administration’s willingness to give Chavismo a chance under Rodríguez marks a striking difference from December 19, 2025, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a lengthy explanation of why he considered Venezuela “an illegitimate regime that openly cooperates with terrorist elements.”
Not just Maduro, note, but the “regime” itself.
As the former deputy head of the UK mission in Venezuela, I discussed politics with Chavez himself in 1995. I had served in Portugal and the example of a left-wing Portuguese army overthrowing a right-wing dictator to promote a return to democracy was something that appealed to Chavez.
By choosing to allow Maduro’s former vice president, Rodríguez, to assume control of the country rather than press for the immediate installation of María Corina Machado—whose representative won the last Venezuelan election in 2024, according to international verification—Trump is betting that a reformed Chavismo can uniquely provide the stability needed to rebuild the Venezuelan oil industry. And that seems to be his immediate priority.
Rodríguez has reportedly managed to convince Trump that immediate elections are not a priority, meaning that the Venezuelan people will have to wait longer for their decisions to be respected.
But Chavismo has gone through various stages since the 1990s, and could well do so again now.
Find out: Machado trusts that there will be an orderly transition and free elections in Venezuela
The evolution of Chavismo
At some point, Chavismo was a more democratic company. Chávez was elected cleanly in 1998, after having been pardoned in 1994 for a previous and illegal attempt to seize power that failed. At first, Chávez seemed committed to the idea of a democratic process. Furthermore, as in Cuba after the revolution, it prioritized the development of socialist programs in areas such as health and housing.
But Chávez’s view of the sustainability of his government changed markedly in 2002. That’s when the United States supported an attempted coup that challenged his authority.
By surviving that attempt, he gained credibility with Fidel Castro, who had initially doubted Chávez’s abilities.
Castro became his mentor in all policy decisions, particularly in building his international profile.
At that time, Cuba faced a more belligerent American president against Latin American leftism, George W. Bush. So Chávez decided that Chavismo needed to become more anti-American, and the high price of oil allowed him to finance domestic and international largesse.
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‘Competitive authoritarianism’
The system presided over by the new Chávez gradually evolved and, under Castro, became increasingly undemocratic.
The Cuban government advised Chávez on how to develop what critics have called a system of “competitive authoritarianism.” This involved extending presidential terms, attacking the media, and tweaking the Constitution to further centralize power.
In a tried and tested authoritarian move, Chávez filled the judiciary with loyalists and turned the electoral body into a simple rubber stamp of the government in power.
These measures turned out to be the cornerstone of Maduro’s electoral fraud in 2024, when the courts refused to verify the QR codes of the proofs presented by the opposition showing that they, and not Maduro, had won.
Under Maduro, Chavismo became even more repressive and authoritarian. Lacking the charisma of Chávez—who died in 2013—and facing dwindling oil revenues to fund social and welfare programs, Maduro resorted to suppressing human and electoral rights to stay in power as the country descended into an economic crisis and gang violence.
And to compensate for reduced oil revenues, Maduro turned to financing through drug and human trafficking, gold smuggling and, perhaps most recently, cryptocurrency trading.
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A post-Trump facelift?
Rodríguez does not represent a break with the Chavista past, as he served under both Chávez and Maduro.
However, it is apparently willing to cooperate with Washington. And the Trump administration, for now, appears to have given it the go-ahead, as evidenced most recently by the CIA director’s high-profile Jan. 15 visit to Caracas.
The basis of this apparent agreement is oil. Rodríguez has extensive experience dealing with international oil companies, and his handling of crude oil production is reportedly a factor in his acceptance by the US administration.
The governments of Chávez and Maduro promoted state control of oil and other sectors, such as gold mining in Venezuela.
Under Rodríguez, this is likely to be reversed to appease Washington, reopening the country to foreign companies and, especially, American investment. Such a move would inevitably act as a wedge between Venezuela and Cuba.
Under Chávez and Maduro, Venezuela supplied oil to Cuba at heavily discounted prices. In exchange, Cuba sent doctors, advisors and security personnel.
This arrangement is likely to be terminated under a new understanding between Caracas and Washington. Its cessation would force Cuba to seek alternative oil supplies, probably from Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.
However, the Chavistas will probably advise Cuba to make a similar deal with Trump. Cuba does not have oil, but it does have large nickel deposits and enormous potential for American companies in tourism. Cuba has only one 18-hole golf course, and years ago Trump, as a real estate developer, commissioned a study on the construction of golf resorts on the island. Agreements of this type could also save “fidelismo.”
But where else could Chavismo go now? Will Rodríguez reverse the trend toward autocracy and commit to holding future elections within a defined time frame?
Will you also commit to dismantling the “colectivos,” the Chavismo militias that have repressed the opposition for years? And will he commit to returning the armed forces to their national character, rather than being the protector of a single political movement?
Looking ahead, Trump’s prolongation of Chavismo is a political gamble in Florida, a state where many Latino Republican voters detest the system and any deal with socialist governments. Trump campaigned in 2016 in part opposing Obama’s 2014 deal with Cuba, stating that he would never deal with “socialist dictators.”
More context: How markets have profited from Maduro’s capture in Venezuela — and why this is raising questions
Can Chavismo survive?
Chavismo’s leaders have long been pragmatic negotiators, with a reputation among critics for breaking promises. In October 2023, for example, the Biden administration helped finalize the Barbados Agreement with Maduro and Venezuelan opposition groups, which provided for free and fair elections in exchange for sanctions relief.
However, the United States soon after accused Maduro of violating the agreement by disqualifying the chosen opposition candidate, María Corina Machado. The now interim president Rodríguez remains surrounded by all the Chavismo actors who hatched the plan to deny the opposition’s victory—except, of course, Maduro himself.
Even so, Chavismo has demonstrated a strong survival instinct. And Delcy Rodríguez has learned what many other leaders have learned: Chavismo can succeed by flattering, or at least appeasing, Trump. He has also learned that Trump appears to be more interested in oil than restoring democracy.
*Paul Webster Hare He is a full professor and interim director of Latin American Studies, Boston University.
This article was originally published by The Conversation
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