Bernstein is taking a contrarian view on Nvidia stock even as other investors signal that valuations had grown for the broader artificial intelligence trade and as tariffs weigh on sentiment and depress prices. In fact, Bernstein managing director and senior analyst Stacy Rasgon argued that Nvidia’s valuation is a buying opportunity for investors, now that the stock is trading at roughly 25 times the next twelve months, or NTM, estimated earnings. Rasgon says that’s the lowest forward valuation level in a year for Nvidia and close to a 10-year low. “Worries that the AI trade is ‘over’ feel a little premature to us, and valuation is getting increasingly attractive,” Rasgon said. “Sentiment has clearly pivoted for now on the AI group. However, spending intentions seemingly continue to rise, a product cycle is just kicking off, and we have GTC coming in a few weeks.” GTC refers to Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference , an AI conference for researchers, developers, engineers and investors. It has usually been profitable for investors to buy Nvidia at a 25 times NTM P/E ratio, with an average return of 150% over the past 10 years at that level, Rasgon said. Bernstein has an outperform rating on Nvidia alongside a $185 per share price target, implying about 62% upside moving forward. Nvidia stock has pulled back close to 14% so far in 2025. Earlier Tuesday, the decline was closer to 17%. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia over the past year. “It is clear that the Blackwell introduction has not gone as smoothly as the company might have hoped, and there remains added volatility given how laser-focused investors are on this supply chain,” Rasgon wrote in a report on Tuesday. “However, it does seem they have worked through things.” Rasgon cautioned that the potential headwind Bernstein is most closely keeping an eye on is how stringent President Donald Trump’s export restrictions on China will ultimately prove. “For what it is worth, every ~$10B would account for ~25 cents in NVDA EPS; a full China datacenter ban would likely impact EPS ($5-6 baseline?) by mid to high single digits, with the stock already pulling back by much more than that,” Rasgon said. Questions have recently emerged about the actual level of demand for AI applications and projects. Microsoft recently slashed some of its leases for data centers , walking away from its most ambitious expansion plans and signaling that the company backing OpenAI may be reappraising the future growth of generative AI.
