China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles at its three most recent silo fields and shows no interest in arms control talks, according to a draft Pentagon report that highlighted Beijing’s growing military ambitions.
China is expanding and modernizing its weapons arsenal at a faster rate than any other nuclear power, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based nonprofit organization. Beijing has described reports of an increase in its military presence as attempts to “smear and smear China and deliberately mislead the international community.”
Last month, US President Donald Trump said he may be working on a denuclearization plan with China and Russia. But the draft Pentagon report, seen by Reuters, noted that Beijing did not appear interested.
“We continue to see no willingness on Beijing’s part to push for such measures or broader arms control talks,” the report said.
In particular, the report noted that China has likely deployed more than 100 solid-fueled DF-31 ICBMs in silo fields near China’s border with Mongolia, the latest in a series of silo sites. The Pentagon had previously reported the existence of these fields, but not the number of missiles loaded.
The Pentagon declined to comment and China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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The draft Pentagon report did not identify any potential targets for the newly deployed missiles. U.S. officials said the report could change before it is sent to lawmakers.
The report said China’s nuclear warhead arsenal remained in the low 600 range in 2024, reflecting “a slower production rate compared to previous years.”
However, he added that China’s nuclear expansion continues and that it is on track to have more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.
China has said it adheres to a “nuclear self-defense strategy and pursues a no-first-use policy.”
Trump has said he wants the United States to resume nuclear weapons testing, but it is unclear what form that would take.
Former US President Joe Biden and Trump, during their first term, attempted to engage China and Russia in negotiations to replace the New START treaty with a trilateral strategic nuclear arms control agreement.
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The wide-ranging Pentagon report detailed China’s military buildup and stated that “China hopes to be able to fight and win a war in Taiwan by the end of 2027.”
China, which considers democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, has never renounced the use of force to “reunify” with the island.
Beijing was refining its military options to take Taiwan by “brute force,” according to the report, which added that one option could include strikes within 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles of China.
“In sufficient volume, these attacks could seriously challenge and disrupt the United States presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region,” he added.
The report comes less than two months before the expiration of the 2010 New START treaty, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, which limits both sides to deploying 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Biden extended the pact for five years in February 2021, but its terms do not allow for a new formal extension.
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Many experts fear that the pact’s expiration could fuel a three-way nuclear arms race.
“More nuclear weapons and the absence of diplomacy will not make anyone safer, not China, not Russia, not the United States,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the advocacy group Arms Control Association.
Anti-corruption purges
Chinese President Xi Jinping has carried out a wide-ranging anti-corruption campaign, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) being one of the main targets.
The report noted that the purge could affect short-term nuclear readiness but also lay the groundwork for “overall long-term improvements to the PLA.”
Revenue at giant Chinese military companies fell last year as anti-corruption purges slowed contracts and arms purchases, according to a leading conflict think tank.
China’s arms revenues declined despite three decades of rising defense budgets, against the backdrop of Beijing’s growing strategic rivalry with the United States, Asia’s traditional military power, and tensions over Taiwan and the hotly contested South China Sea.
In the last 18 months, at least 26 current and former senior managers of state arms companies have been investigated or removed from their positions, according to the Pentagon report.
“Investigations have expanded from a focus in 2023 on procurement in the rocket and missile industry to most of China’s defense industry, including the nuclear and shipbuilding industry,” he added.
With information from Reuters.
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