China’s factory activity returns to growth, expanding at its sharpest pace in a year

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LIANYUNGANG, CHINA – FEBRUARY 28: Employees produce stuffed toys for export at a toy factory on February 28, 2026 in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province of China.

Si Wei | Visual China Group | Getty Images

China’s official gauge for manufacturing activity rose more than expected in March, marking its strongest performance in a year and snapping two months of declines.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for March rose to 50.4, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, beating economists’ expectations for 50.1 in a Reuters poll. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while levels above that threshold signal expansion.

That expansion marked a notable rebound from two months of contraction, with the official figure standing at 49.3 and 49.0 in January and February, respectively.

In the first two months of this year, China’s exports surged 21.8% from a year earlier, sharply beating expectations, as robust demand from Southeast Asia and Europe more than offset the slump in U.S.-bound shipments.

A separate private-survey PMI conducted by RatingDog and S&P Global is set to be released on Wednesday and is expected to drop to 51.6 in March from a 5-year high of 52.1 in February, according to a Reuters poll.

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