Mexico City.- Citi Mexico improved its forecast for GDP this year due to the surprise advance observed in the second quarter.
However, the financial group clarified that the Mexican economy will remain weak in the remainder of the year to a large extent due to the uncertainty among investors associated with the commercial policy of President Trump.
Citi rise its expectation by 2025 to 0.5%, from the previous 0.2%, after the economic activity showed an advance of 0.7% in the second quarter of the year, when the group expected a zero growth.
“Then, simply because of this statistical effect it is very difficult to continue supporting these forecasts that we had before, 0.2% (for the whole year),” the economist in chief of the lender in Mexico, Julio Ruiz, told a press conference.
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“Because to stay with this 0.2%, because you would have to put a very strong fall in the second half of the year, and if you do not have something that can explain that fall, it makes no sense to make it,” he added.
He emphasized that the improvement in the forecast does not mean that the economy is buoyant or that there will be an important rebound forward.
He explained that Citi Mexico’s forecast for the second half of the year will continue to reflect weakness, since the expectation for the third quarter is close to 0% and for the last one is around 0.2%.
He pointed out that the factors that continue to affect economic activity in the second half of the year remain the uncertainty associated with the commercial policy of President Donald Trump, since investment decisions continue to delay.
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The second factor that plays against Mexico is a deceleration of the US economy.
And among the internal factors is the one linked to the implementation of the judicial reform, “because although it is fading, a risk is still at the end of the day.”
By 2026, CITI reduced its estimate of 1.6% to 1.4%.
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