Julio Ruiz, chief economist of Citi Mexico, said that the local economy will not be in a standing in 2025, despite the fact that countries such as the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy and Greece do go through that situation.
“If we see the survey (CITI of expectations) we have that total inflation is at 3.8 percent by 2025, then it is inside the range, so I do not think we can be talking about a stagflation,” said Forbes Mexico.
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According to the most recent biweekly survey of the Financial Group, the Consensus of Economists estimates that GDP growth in 2025 will be 0.1 percent, less than 0.2 percent of the past survey. Participants make “estimates in the range of less 0.8 percent to 0.7 percent.”
“This is the sixth consecutive edition of the survey in which the growth expectation is reduced by 2025,” said the American origin group in the survey.
The growth of the Mexican economy is complicated and quite weak by 2025, said Julio Ruiz.
The United States, Canada, Japan, Italy and Greece have systematically recorded GDP growth comparable to their 2015-2019 averages, said Ben May, director of global macroeconomic research at Oxford Economics.
“For these economies, recent growth seems to have been too strong to have been in stagns,” he said.
He added that South Korea has had a persistently lower growth than registered before the pandemic.
He said that other possible candidates for stagning, based only on GDP data, are the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland and Australia.
Julio Ruiz recalled that a technical recession is defined as two consecutive GDP contractions, and that “did not happen in Mexico.”
Another definition that “is a little more to see in real time all the indicators of the economy, the labor market, the commercial activity and different sectors are with a growth of zero or decreasing,” he said.
He said there are committees that dated if there was a recessive period, such as the Mexican Institute of Finance Executive.
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“In the first four -month period of the year we already observed with more concrete data the very weak services sector and industrial production, which seems to fall,” he said.
He added that the first quarter was saved by the primary sector, but forward “we see that uncertainty continues to hit the economy.”
He indicated that Donald Trump’s commercial policy will apply discounts to the tariffs of the automotive industry, but there will continue to be an uncertain environment.
