Specialists consulted by Citi predict that Banco de México (Banxico) will cut its reference interest rate by 25 basis points (bp) this Thursday, which would close the year at 10%.
“Consensus estimates that the next interest rate move by Banxico will be a 25-bp decrease in December,” according to the most recent survey from the bank, which recently separated from Banamex.
On the other hand, the median forecast for the rate at the end of next year was adjusted to 8.50%, from 8% in the last survey.
Read: Peso and BMV withdraw while awaiting Banxico and Fed rate decision
The cut that the Governing Board of Bank of Mexico would announce tomorrow would be in line with the one made this Wednesday by the Federal Reserve (Fed), since it reduced its rate by 25 basis points to leave it in a range of between 4.25 and 4.50%.
They foresee more moderate inflation at the end of 2024
By the end of the year, the consensus of analysts estimated that general monthly inflation will slow down more than expected, as it will be at 4.33% and not 4.38%, while the underlying inflation will be at 3.60%, practically unchanged compared to the previous year. previous exercise.
For the end of 2025, the general inflation expectation increased slightly to 3.90%, from the previous 3.83%, while the forecast for core inflation stood at 3.70%, unchanged from the previous survey. Banxico’s target inflation level is 3% plus/minus one percentage point.
Read: Banxico will reduce interest rate to 10%, estimates BNP Paribas
Dollar at 21 pesos by the end of 2025
Analysts expect that by the end of 2025 the exchange rate will be 21 pesos per dollar, higher than the 20.50 expected in the previous survey.
For the end of 2024, expectations remained at 20.25 pesos per dollar.
Forecasts for the Mexican economy remained unchanged, considering a slowdown to 1.6% this year, and another to 1.2% for 2025.
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