Financial groups consulted by Citi reduced their expectations for the Mexican economy in 2025 and 2026.
For this year, the forecast for GDP expansion went from 0.5% to 0.4%, while for next year it was adjusted from 1.4% to 1.3%, according to the most recent biweekly survey published this Friday.
The pessimism adds to the recent downward revisions of Banxico and the OECD, due to the weak economic activity observed in the third quarter.
The median headline inflation projection for the end of 2025 increased to 3.79% from 3.77% in the previous survey, while, for core inflation, it remained at 4.23%.
You may be interested: Banxico cuts Mexico’s GDP forecast for 2025 to 0.3%
For year-end 2026, the median rose to 3.95% from 3.91%, while the estimate for the underlying rose to 3.89%, from 3.83%.
The consensus of analysts continues to expect a cut of 25 basis points in Banxico’s reference interest rate on December 18, with which the monetary policy instrument would close the year at 7%.
Regarding the exchange rate, the consensus projected that it would close the year at 18.51 units per dollar, lower than the previous 18.75, and by the end of 2026 it would be at 19.20, from 19.31 in the previous survey. For 2026 they also adjusted downwards, going from 1.4% to 1.3%, according to the financial group’s most recent biweekly survey.
Context: The OECD reduces GDP forecast for Mexico in 2025 to 0.7%
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