The increase in global temperatures will reduce the worldwide ability to produce food from most basic crops, even after taking into account economic development and adaptation of farmers to new circumstances.
An investigation published by Nature and heads Stanford University (EU) estimates that each additional degree of global warming will reduce the global ability to produce food in 120 calories per person per person, that is, 4.4% of the current daily consumption.
“If the weather is heated 3 degrees, it is basically as if everyone on the planet renounced breakfast,” a high cost for a world in which more than 800 million people sometimes spend one day or more without food due to lack of access, said Solomon Hsiang, one of the signatories of the article, cited by Stanford University.
The study modeling the performance of six basic crops: wheat, corn, rice, soybeans, barley and cassava, in several warming and adaptation scenarios.
In 2050, climate change will reduce crop yield by 8%, regardless of the increase or decrease in carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades, as these remain in the atmosphere, catching heat and causing damage for hundreds of years.
By 2100, the authors estimate that the global crop yield will be reduced by 11% if emissions quickly fall to zero and 24% if they continue to increase without control.
The study is based on observations of 12,658 regions of 55 countries and analyzes the adaptation and yields of the six crops that provide two thirds of the calories of humanity.
The models point to a 50% probability that only the global rice performance increases in a warmer planet, largely because this crop benefits from nights with more temperature.
However, the chances that performance decreases at the end of the century ranging between 70% and 90% for each of the other basic crops.
In an elevated emission scenario, at the end of the century corn production can decrease up to 40% in the US, Eastern China, Central Asia, South Africa and the Middle East, while wheat losses range between 15 and 25% in Europe, Africa and South America and between 30 and 40% in China, Russia, EU and Canada.
We recommend: drought puts 90% of coffee crops in southern Mexico
Climate change threatens world agricultural production
As a novelty, this study takes into account the realistic adaptation of farmers to changing conditions, assuming a “perfect” or none adaptation.
Thus, in many regions, for example, crop varieties change, modify the sowing and harvest dates or alter the use of fertilizers.
The team estimates that these adjustments compensate approximately one third of weather -related losses in 2100 if emissions continue to increase, but the rest is maintained.
Any level of heating, “even taking into account adaptation, causes losses in world agricultural production,” said Andrew Hultgren, from the University of Illinois (EU).
The most accused losses occur at the extremes of the agricultural economy: in the modern barns that now enjoy some of the best cultivation conditions in the world and in the agricultural subsistence communities that depend on small cassava harvests.
A favorable climate, he added, contributes greatly to the cultivation lands remain productive from generation to generation, “but if you let the weather depreciate, the rest is a waste. The land that you leave your children will serve for something, but not to cultivate,” said Hsiang.
With EFE information
Follow us on Google News to always keep you informed
