The official data on formal employment in 2025 does not directly reflect the real dynamics of the creation of new positions, since workers from digital platforms were included, that is, only positions that already existed were formalized, according to a report by BBVA Mexico.
IMSS numbers indicate that formal employment closed 2025 with an annual growth of 1.3%, which in net terms is equivalent to the incorporation of 213 thousand affiliated workers.
At the end of the year, the incorporation of 206 thousand digital platform workers was recorded, but when discounting its effect, the annual employment growth is reduced to only 0.3%, which is equivalent in net terms to the generation of 72 thousand new jobs, the financial group explained in an analysis.
He indicated that this performance is the lowest since 2010, excluding 2020, a year affected by the pandemic, and confirms the low dynamism of the Mexican economy, largely associated with the persistent weakness of investment and the deterioration of business confidence.
BBVA recalled that according to the most recent figures, corresponding to October, gross fixed capital formation continues to register an annual contraction of 5.8% in real terms, confirming the lack of momentum in productive investment.
Read: Formal employment in Mexico will have the worst performance in five years in 2025
Within the indicator, the marked weakness of the machinery and equipment component stands out, with an annual drop of 10.3%, reflecting the caution of the private sector in the face of an environment of high uncertainty.
This caution is reflected in the business confidence indicators published by Inegi. In particular, the “Right time to invest” component is the one with the greatest lag, with a level of 35.8 points, significantly below the threshold of 50 points, already accumulating 151 consecutive months in pessimistic territory.
Meanwhile, the “Present economic situation of the country” component also remains below the threshold, standing at 46.4 points and accumulating 11 consecutive months at levels below 50 points.
These indicators, according to the financial group, confirm the deterioration of business confidence and explain, to a large extent, the persistent weakness of investment and its negative impact on the creation of formal employment.
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The weakness of formal employment is explained by the destruction of jobs in key sectors of the economy, with manufacturing and construction concentrating the greatest deterioration.
BBVA added that the impetus provided by the infrastructure works promoted during the previous six-year term was diluted, failing to sustain a favorable dynamic of job creation at the regional level.
Anticipates gradual improvement, but insufficient
Although a gradual improvement in formal employment growth is anticipated with respect to 2025, it would still be insufficient to regain dynamism comparable to that observed during the first years after the pandemic.
The expected recovery would be conditioned by a gradual normalization of investment and an improvement in business confidence, which would allow some support for private consumption through labor income.
However, as long as low levels of productive investment and limited job creation persist, the labor market will continue to show fragile performance, with downward risks to household income and consumption growth in the short term.
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