On Monday night, President Donald Trump asked the State Department to designate Mexican cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations,” a move that increases the reach of U.S. law enforcement on criminal groups but risks to complicate international business, restrict asylum applications and strain relations with Mexico, according to analysts consulted by Reuters.
The measure targets two key Trump promises – confronting migration and drug trafficking – and seeks to put cartels such as Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation (CJNG) on par with designated terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, Hezbollah and the Islamic State.
Analysts interviewed by Reuters said the designation is unlikely to be a game-changer in the drug war and will not drastically alter existing powers given to U.S. authorities to go after cartels.
The Kingpin Act, which dates back to the 1990s, allows, for example, the imposition of international sanctions and the persecution of Americans who help cartels.
However, according to analysts, the law expands the network of persecution of people or groups suspected of helping criminal groups, and facilitates the persecution of members of cartels operating abroad under US law.
Read: Trump signs order to declare cartels terrorist groups
“The United States already has many tools to pursue cartels,” said María Calderón, of the Wilson Center, in Washington, DC. “But the ‘material support’ clause does open the door to more possible prosecutions,” he added.
The designation does not make military action in Mexico easier from a legal perspective, but some analysts said it could serve as a political springboard toward some form of military intervention by helping to build a justification for it.
“There is nothing in the language of the law behind an FTO (international terrorist organizations) designation that authorizes any military action,” said Elisabeth Malkin, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Latin America program. “But it could change the mentality in Washington.”
White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement in response to questions from Reuters that “after the additional tools this designation provides to President Trump and his administration, it sends a clear message to the cartels that threaten American citizens.”
Mexico has long opposed the measure, arguing that the cartels are not motivated by political ends like others on the terrorist list, but by profit.
On Tuesday, President Claudia Sheinbaum took a less confrontational tone, saying the two countries needed to work together while respecting Mexican sovereignty.
“We all want to fight the drug cartels, that is evident. So, what needs to be done? We have to coordinate efforts, we have to collaborate, they (the United States) in their territory, we in our territory,” he said during his usual morning press conference.
Migrants may be affected
The order could also affect migrants, who are regularly extorted for protection money or forced to pay ransoms for kidnappings by human traffickers who are deemed to “support” a terrorist organization, which would prevent them from seeking asylum in USA.
“This makes it virtually impossible to obtain asylum for any migrant who is forced to pay (…) to the cartels,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert at the Brookings Institution.
Cartels make millions from the profitable business of human trafficking. They control swathes of territory along the border and along migratory routes, areas where they often demand payment to cross and routinely kidnap migrants for ransom.
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It could also have the opposite effect, as fleeing U.S.-designated terrorist organizations could in certain cases bolster migrants’ asylum claims, Felbab-Brown and others said, adding that how it is interpreted will depend on the willingness policy.
Risk for companies that pay extortion
US law stipulates that providing material support to these organizations can result in asset confiscation, criminal charges, and substantial fines.
American and multinational companies operating in many parts of Mexico often pay extortion and other payments to people affiliated with cartels in order to produce, transport and sell goods. This designation could complicate trade and make compliance difficult, analysts say.
“It could have a chilling effect on U.S. companies across Mexico,” said Brian Philips, a Mexico security expert at the University of Essex, but added: “We will have to see if U.S. authorities actually go after companies for paying extortions.” .
A 2024 study by the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico (Amcham) showed that 45% of more than 200 companies had received lawsuits for protection payments and 12% said organized crime had “taken partial control of sales.” , distribution and/or pricing of its goods.”
The designation could also complicate compliance for money transfer companies that process cross-border payments and operate in areas controlled by cartels, Philips and other analysts added.
The initial plan to designate the cartels as terrorist organizations arose from Trump’s promise to “wage war” on the cartels in an effort to curb the fentanyl crisis ravaging American communities.
But perhaps most important, some say, is the increase in influence over the Mexican political class.
“A large number of people in positions of power in Mexico – corrupt governors and mayors, members of the security forces, bankers – are going to be indictable or at least untouchable (to work) for the United States government,” said Adam Isacson. , from the Washington Office on Latin American Affairs (WOLA).
With information from Reuters
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