In international politics, words weigh what uranium: we try to contain what we cannot stop. The recent American bombardment on Iran’s nuclear facilities redefines the limits of the conflict in the area and confronts us with a more uncertain and volatile future than it already was.
From the White House, Donald Trump – in his eternal reality show of uncertainty – announced the entry of the United States into the war with Israel. The orb, stunned but not surprised, discovered that in this era, the problems are solved with show and fire.
There are dates impossible to forget because nobody knows how to do it. “A day from mid -June could be remembered as the moment when East Media changed forever,” said CNN. But there are no distances: Middle East sounds closer than ever, the world shrinks its tragedies to our own patio. The international reaction was a parade of adjectives, but the background was one: fear of the abyss and vertigo in the face of the possibility of being, finally, to the edge.
The attack on Iran is not an isolated event, but the symptom of a global struggle presented as moral competence: democracies against self -scratch, the West in the face of the axis of those who do not like them. It is the nth chapter of the series “Democracy: limited edition”, where freedom defends by bombing enemies. Russia and Iran defend autocracy; West, democracy, but how legitimate is when it is imposed at missile tip?
The alleged global consensus is clear on the surface and cloudy in the background. Trump, Putin, Netanyahu: leaders who act as owners of a game of chess that their own peoples did not ask to play. Order is imposed where force is argument and the law, footer. In the end, the true battle is for the right to belong to the club in which it is decided who can decide.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s nightmare is repeated: another war on ambiguous data, without clarity of the destination of the Uranium, without the UN or of the United States Congress, with no other strategy than throwing bombs and running out. When the United States bombs, legitimacy becomes forgotten basement. Nobody remembers the United Nations Charter when smart bombs fall and intelligence is the least circulating in war rooms.
In the nuclear scenario, the monopoly is the best incentive. Who can be erected in the figure that decides who can count on enriched uranium and who is not? Everything indicates that the lesson is that, if you do not want to be invaded, you need to get an atomic arsenal. Ukraine delivered his weapons and ended up invaded; North Korea made his and nobody touches her. The point is that no bombing in the Middle East has brought peace.
Trump’s “sensational blow” can point to anywhere: a precautionary measure or the first assault of a fight that nobody knows how it will end. The Muslim knot will have another cause to harden and the western vision, another reason to increase the military budget. The victory, if such a thing exists in this context, will last what the enemy is late in reorganizing. Israel can kill Hezbollah or Hamas leaders, but the resistance seed survives in the rubble.
China and Russia condemn, warn, call for calm, from their calm. Multipolarity is increasingly a club of countries with opinion power but unable to stop anything. Türkiye aspires to mediate, Saudi Arabia applaud in silence. The 2025 geopolitics is a poker game where everyone pretends to have better cards.
Some celebrate the attack as an act of preventive peace, the geopolitical version of “I hit you so you don’t hit me.” Faced with them, critics speak of cynicism, hypocrisy and a war of convenience under the usual script: “Demonize the enemy – bombard it – celebrate peace. Memory is the luxury of those who do not decide.
The attack on Iran not only burns geopolitics: threats the global oil market with root. Iran controls the Ormuz Strait, an obligatory step of a fifth of the world oil. Any movement to close that route – or even the simple threat – triggers oil prices, makes energy more expensive and can put in check to whole economies, from New York to Shanghai. Iranian sanctions and reprisals, added to a climate of uncertainty, affect maritime routes, supply agreements and the pulse of financial markets. An Iran cornered not only fights with missiles: it also has in its hands the valve that regulates prices in the world.
It is not a master play, unless it is the confirmation that international law is only valid for those who have missiles. The world is polarized, institutions weaken, populists strengthen, the nuclear race is agitated and peace is a distant good by decree. Has a new order born? It gives the impression that is only the same disorder with another more fluorescent color. The world is not safer, only more unstable and we navigate in unknown waters, hoping that this time the story is not repeated – although everything indicates that it is only rehearsing a new act.
About the author:
* Eduardo Navarrete is a specialist in futures studies, journalist, photographer and head of content in UX Marketing.
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eduardo-navarrete
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Instagram: @elnavarrete
The opinions expressed are only the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and the editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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