Egyptian military violations in Sinai concern Israel

Next month Israel marks 46 years since the signing of the peace agreement with Egypt, which had previously waged a fierce war against Israel. But then in 1979 the then Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin declared, “No more war, no more bloodshed, no more tears,” as he signed the peace agreement on the White House lawn together with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and US President Jimmy Carter. Since then much water has flowed down the River Nile. Since US President Donald Trump announced his relocation plan for Gazans, which includes plans to transfer many of them to Egypt, the winds of war would again seem to be blowing between Israel and Egypt.

In recent weeks, there has been increasing talk, both on social media and from officials on both sides, that Egypt is preparing for war: from videos of Egyptian military exercises to mutual threats. “Woe to Israel if it makes a mistake in damaging the Aswan Dam or Egypt’s security, because then the Egyptian army will occupy Tel Aviv in one day,” said Egyptian MP Mostafa Bakry this week, for example. The Israeli response was not long in coming, when Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, accused Cairo of significant violations of the peace agreement: “There are bases that are being built and can only be used for offensive operations.” Is the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt likely to collapse amid the opening up of a new front?

“There are runways in Sinai that are suitable for fighter jets”

In order to answer this complicated question, it is worth looking at one of the main clauses in the 1979 peace agreement. Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin (res.), who until a few months ago headed the IDF’s International Cooperation Division says that in the military appendix to the peace agreement, two types of violations were mentioned: the first was the scale of forces (transportation of troops or weapons) and the second was infrastructure (construction of buildings or bases).

In general, by imposing restrictions on the Egyptian military presence, there is a conflict of interests. Israel wants to prevent any real likelihood of a military threat on the shared border, while Cairo sees restrictions on the deployment of forces as a national humiliation. Over the years, disputes between the parties regarding the Egyptian military presence in Sinai have arisen several times. In November 2007, for example, Israel opposed increasing the quota of Egyptian soldiers on the border with Gaza as part of the fight against smuggling from the Strip, on the grounds that Cairo was not doing enough with its 750 border guards deployed in the area.

This also happened when Egypt was fighting ISIS in Sinai. In 2018, the then Egyptian army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Mohamed Farid Hegazi admitted that in the Sinai there were 88 batallions and 42,000 soldiers, although the agreement only allowed for 22,000.

According to an article published in the Israeli journal “Ma’arachot” by Lt. Col. (res.) Eli Dekel, a former head of the field and aims division in the IDF Intelligence Research department , until 2007 Egypt had the infrastructure for permanent bases for 120 battalions, and by 2021, at least 50 more had been added. Therefore, he concluded that during routine operations, three Egyptian divisions would be present in Sinai out of about 13 in the entire army. In addition, Dekel noted that the tank carrier force had doubled to 1,500.

However, the root of the problem, according to Defrin is in violations in the field of military infrastructure. “Since al-Sisi came to power, there has been ‘creeping’ construction of infrastructure in Sinai. Over the years, Israel, along with the US, has presented the infrastructure violations to officials. According to Egypt, these are intended to restore governance in the peninsula. When Israel demanded to know why there were three airports in violation of the agreement, they replied that they were civilian airports. However, it is clear that they also have runways that are suitable for fighter jets.”

Similar claims regarding the construction of infrastructure on the peninsula were made in Dekel’s article. He wrote that in 2016, the paving of roads leading from the Suez Canal to the Israeli border began. A similar step was taken on the southern Suez-Mitla-Nahal-Eilat axis, and the Jenipa-Wadi Meliz road was also repaved. The former officer also wrote that an elaborate military complex was built in Sinai, including outposts, mines, and anti-tank trenches, and a chain of company outposts that, he said, were intended to delay IDF forces on their way west. And if that were not enough, in 2015, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi announced a plan to dig seven tunnels under the canal, each with a road about seven and a half meters wide.

Cairo’s dependence on the US and the west

Maj. Gen. (res.) Eitan Dangot, the former military secretary to Defense Ministers Shaul Mofaz, Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak is well aware of the sensitivities regarding Egypt. He says that due to the instability in the Middle East over the past 18 months, he believes that Israel should expand its surveillance of Egypt. “This requires us to address the issue of the use of force. Among other things, Egypt is built on Western combat systems.”

Thus Dangot turns the spotlight on the US, and for good reason. Egypt relies heavily on aid from the US. A significant pillar of Egyptian military progress is through US aid, which is now in doubt following the al-Sisi regime’s fierce opposition to Trump’s plan to evacuate Gazans from the Strip. Since 1979, the US has provided Egypt with $51 billion in aid – second only to Israel. In 2023 alone, Cairo received $1.43 billion from the US, with $1.3 billion of that going to military aid and the rest to economic development. Last September, the Biden administration approved $1.3 billion in military aid.

Cairo is facing a dire economic situation: according to the UN World Food Program (WFP). The Egyptian pound has lost 84.5% of its value against the US dollar since January 2016. On a social level, there are many reasons for el-Sisi to be concerned: 27.3% of the population lives below the poverty line and about 6.7% is unemployed. Last year, in an effort to inject capital into the country, Cairo found a creative solution – selling 170 square kilometers of land in Ras al-Hikmah to the UAE for $35 billion.

Egypt’s economic situation also affects the country’s security policy. A security source familiar with the situation there says that Egypt is facing three main threats: the first and main one is from Iran and its Shiite allies, which includes the Houthi rebels, who have directly damaged the Egyptian economy during the war. Following their attacks, there has been a fall in the number of ships through the Suez Canal – a source of about 2% of Egypt’s GDP until the war. In 2024, the number of ships passing through the canal fell by over 50% to about 13.200, while the daily passage rate fell from about 80-75 ships to only about 35-32. This dismal situation led to a drop in Egypt’s annual revenues from the canal by 60.7% to about $4 billion.

The second threat includes the terrorist threats in the region, such as Libya in the east and ISIS and Bedouin tribes in Sinai, which Egypt is dealing with. The third threat, according to the same source, is the potential war with Israel. According to GFP, an international website that specializes in comparisons between the world’s armies in various fields, the IDF’s advantage over the Egyptian army exists mainly in the air force, thanks to the number of F-35 aircraft in the Israeli army’s possession and the size of the defense budget, while Egypt holds an advantage in terms of manpower (12 times more young people eligible for conscription) and in terms of artillery and tanks.

Drones from China, ships from Germany

Over the years, Cairo has realized that it must diversify its sources of procurement and reduce its dependence on Washington, especially after former US President Barack Obama imposed a range of sanctions on Egypt about a decade ago.

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Eyal Pinko of the Department of Political Science and the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, who has been following Egypt’s military buildup for about 16 years, says that Cairo is currently purchasing Chinese drones and missiles, French aircraft, German ships and submarines, and Italian weapons.

In addition, the Egyptian army currently maintains a large fleet that includes submarines manufactured by Germany’s ThyssenKrupp and submarines it procured from China, amid concerns about Israeli underwater capabilities. “Egypt has also procured helicopter carriers from France; one sits in the Red Sea and one in El-Arish, each carrying more than 50 Russian attack helicopters. In addition, their officers are educated at high-quality institutions in the US, such as Annapolis, and also in Europe.”

Is there a real potential for conflict?

So are Israel and Egypt heading for their first military clash since the 1970s? The experts we spoke to do not rule it out, but they make it clear: the chances are definitely low. Eitan Dangot explains that despite the complexity and repeated violations by Egypt, he doubts an attack on Israel is a reasonable move in the near term. “Egypt is a sovereign state, and as such, it is much more difficult for it to create an element of surprise, as in the case of Hamas on October 7. An Egyptian attack would contradict an exceptional coordination system with the IDF, which has only improved during the el-Sisi era.”

Dr. Pinko says similar things, saying that in order to understand the overall picture of the situation regarding Egyptian ambitions, the question needs to be broken down into three levels: capabilities, intentions, and timing. “In terms of capabilities – Egypt has a much larger army than Israel, which, among other things, possesses cruise missiles with a range of 1,700 kilometers. In intentions, I don’t think Egypt has any intention of launching a campaign against Israel, among other things it suffers from a difficult economic situation. Even against the Houthis, who damaged their economy, they refrained from taking action. In timing, due to the war in Gaza, Egypt fears that Hamas members will reach Sinai. Even so, the peninsula has not really been under de facto Egyptian sovereignty for about a decade, but in the hands of local Bedouin clans and ISIS. The Egyptians don’t want Hamas there either. But of course, in terms of warfare, Egypt is building such a capability against Israel, and anything can happen in the Middle East.”

Defrin sums up that beyond the traditional hostility towards Israel, Cairo fears a variety of threats. “Around them, the Egyptians fear the conflict within Libya between the government and Khalifa Haftar (Libyan National Army leader), the civil war in Sudan has brought more than a million refugees, Ethiopia threatens the country’s water source, the Nile, and Iran has hurt its foreign trade. Bottom line, I do not see the scenario of an Egyptian attack as likely anytime soon.”

This together with statements from officials in “Cairo” who spoke to Globes, and claim that there is an attempt to create an event that has not happened and is not happening in their eyes. In Egypt, as the first country in the region to reach a peace agreement with Israel, they still see that peace agreement as a strategic asset for their interests.

Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on February 23, 2025.

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