Erdogan pulls strings as Turkish carriers boycott Israel

The decision by Turkish carriers Turkish Airlines and Pegasus to relinquish their slots (time windows for takeoffs and landings) at Ben Gurion airport is not a business decision, or even a security decision. It is a political decision by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government controls the entire Turkish aviation industry.

For starters, the Turkish government has a 49.12% stake in Turkish Airlines, the world’s tenth largest airline, with a market cap $11.43 billion. Pegasus, is controlled by ESAS Holdings, with a 52.81% stake. ESAS chairman is Ali Sabanci who is close to Erdogan.

Turkish socialist newspaper “Evrensel” reported last month that Pegasus, which ended the last two years with a net profit of $880 million, has purchased 44 new aircraft through state grants. Granting companies tax breaks is a classic Erdogan method.

Massive procurement of planes

In 2009, the Turkish government launched an incentive program to procure 100 aircraft with a 50% grant for 84 of them, and 15% for the remaining 16. Last December, Pegasus reached an agreement with Boeing for 200 aircraft: 100 on order, and an option for a further 100. If you take those 100 aircraft at a market price of at least $100 million, then the total investment is $10 billion. A 50% grant for 84 aircraft worth $8.4 billion equals $4.4 billion. At the same time, a 15% grant for 16 aircraft worth $1.6 billion is equal to $240 million. Add them together and you arrive at $4.44 billion – the price for 44 aircraft.

This is a numerical illustration of Erdogan’s close relationship with Sabanci, as with many other wealthy businesspeople and he makes no pretense of hiding it. Amid criticism of Israel, the Turkish president launched the second runway at Sabiha Gokcen Airport in eastern Istanbul, Pegasus’ main base, in December 2023. In his speech Erdogan boasted that Turkish Airlines will buy 300 planes. In response Sabanci pledged to buy 150 new planes.

Erdogan is not interested in these planes for the livelihood of Turkish Airlines or Pegasus employees, but for the political and diplomatic leverage they allow him. For example, just three weeks after Globes revealed Turkey’s trade embargo on Israel, Turkish Airlines announced the resumption of flights to the Afghan capital, Kabul – despite the Taliban regime. These are regular weekly flights that have resumed after a three-year hiatus.

Business considerations do not interest Erdogan in the aviation sector

On the other hand, Erdogan has, of course, taken care of each of his protectorates, the new one in Syria and the old one in Somalia. As well as daily flights to Beirut, Turkish Airlines already operates three flights a week to Damascus, and daily flights to Somalia, despite the volatile security situation in the African country.

The bottom line is clear: Erdogan is not interested in business considerations in the aviation sector. After all, the Tel Aviv-Istanbul route was Turkish Airlines’ most profitable for many years, thanks to its many connections to the Far East, Europe and North America. The 286 destinations operated by Turkish Airlines, which ranks fifth in the world in this respect, reflect Ankara’s desire to obtain political rather than economic gains.

Although Turkish Airlines and Pegasus had wonderful slots in Israel, with excellent hours, both airlines “chose”, or rather Erdogan chose for them, not to resume flying to Ben Gurion airport. Ankara is well aware that a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is not expected in the near future. Just as domestic political pressures led Erdogan to impose a trade embargo on Israel, he understands well that his voter base would not accept the renewal of flights to Israel. Thus, another significant pillar in Israel-Turkey relations has been lost in favor of the Turkish president’s ambition to make constitutional changes that would allow him to run again in the 2028 elections.

Published by Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – on April 28, 2025.

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