While comments abound about the use and possible impacts of artificial intelligence, a group of researchers addressed the topic, to obtain greater clarity with economic models and to know if this tool will really modify the economy, or not.
The group is part of the Vanguard team, the second largest asset manager in the world.
To obtain the answer to the big question about artificial intelligence and its possible impacts on the economy, analysts developed a model reviewing more than 100 years ago the repercussions of the use of transformative technologies.
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As a relevant finding, the analysis confirmed that since electricity was invented and its use spread, between 1920 and 1935 there have been no significant increases in productivity due to any transformative technology.
“Today we have a population that is growing at low rates, that is aging, and the expenditure dedicated to the maintenance of this population limits growth, and the possibility of maintaining the level of quality of life going forward,” said Adriana Rangel, Director of the Institutional Segment for Vanguard Latin America.
However, of the 3 possible scenarios that were analyzed in Vanguard, there is good news, he highlighted this Thursday in a conference with the media.
“The good news is that the scenario we see the greatest probability of is that artificial intelligence is a general-purpose technology, like electricity,” he commented.
In this scenario, he explained, “economic growth will be sufficient and will offset the growth of pressures on deficits due to demographic evolution and that will improve the economy and finances in general. The probability of this scenario is between 45% and 55%.”
Rangel Cárdenas insisted that we come from decades where there has not been a significant change in productivity like the one caused by electricity, so intelligence has the potential to become that general-use technology that does generate forward improvements in areas where it has impact, as well as on the growth of the real economy.
When questioned in her presentation about the moment in which we will see the impact of the most probable scenario detected by Vanguard, the economist explained that when reviewing the measurements that occurred with the spread of electricity use, in the case of the current world, with AI, the effects would possibly be noticeable in about 20 years.
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