The stock markets face a positive 2025 although not without risks, according to the consensus of analysts who predict that it will be less fruitful than a 2024 that has left revaluations in Europe and a Wall Street that has accumulated two years with increases of more than 20%.
The markets have proven to be resilient and left forecasts short, with revaluations in Europe between 5 and 20%, while Wall Street indices broke records, with increases of 33.44% for the Nasdaq; 26.63% for the S&P 500; and 14.88%, in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Most analysts agree that the stock markets will continue to have a potential in 2025, although lower than in 2024, and more positive for the US than for Europe in a positive context for the economy but not exempt from geopolitical risks, such as the effects of the new Government. of the elected president of the United States, Donald Trump.
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All managers predict that both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue with a monetary policy aimed at lowering interest rates.
The new ECB rate cuts will encourage the good performance of European markets, although slowed by the Trump Administration’s measures on tariff policy, immigration and taxes, something that will favor Wall Street.
Bankinter believes that the potential of the American stock market is “highly attractive”, around 16%, reaffirmed by the expansion of business results superior to those in Europe.
Fixed income has a positive expected return, and the BBVA manager foresees profit growth of 9% for the US and 5% for Europe. Along these same lines, Banco Santander foresees “solid” growth globally in 2025.
Deutsche Bank, for its part, considers that there is profitability potential in fixed income and maintains a favorable view for equities in 2025, although volatility linked to the potential policies of the Trump Administration should be expected.
For its part, BlackRock is betting on equities, and specifically on American ones, while in fixed income it has been cautious although the preference is for European ones.
Raw materials have been one of the big surprises in 2024. Despite the prospects for oil increases due to geopolitical conflicts, the price of Brent oil, the benchmark in Europe, has fallen by around 4.5%; The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, has remained practically stable.
As for gold, considered a safe haven asset mainly in times of crisis and volatility, it has experienced a 40% rise this year, with the price per ounce going from $1,886 on January 2, 2024 to the current $2,641.
The cryptocurrency market, specifically bitcoin, has experienced great volatility after reaching all-time highs after Trump’s victory and then beginning to fall due to the forecast of a relaxation and pause in rate cuts by the Fed.
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