The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rates without changes on Wednesday, but the monetary managers indicated that the indebtedness costs would still fall this year, although they see a slower casual pace, due to forecasts of a higher inflation by the new import tariffs of the Donald Trump government.
The quarterly economic projections of the Central Bank of the United States showed a slightly staplation scenario, with a 1.4%growth slowdown, an increase in 4.5%unemployment and an inflation of 3%, much higher than the current one.
Although those responsible for monetary policy still plan to cut the rates half a percentage point this year, as they project in March and December, from there they slightly reduce the rhythm to a single cut of a quarter percentage point in 2026 and another in 2027, in a long effort to return inflation to the objective of 2%.
According to the new projections, inflation will remain high in 2.4% to 2026, before falling to 2.1% in 2027, in a practically stable unemployment context.
“Uncertainty about economic perspectives has decreased, but remains high,” said the Federal Reserve in its last monetary policy statement, a modification of the May writing, at a more turbulent moment of commercial debate.
The growth is expected to be 1.4% this year, compared to the 1.7% rate of the last round of March projections, and that the unemployment rate ends the year by 4.5%, compared to 4.4% planned in March.
Until now, however, “the unemployment rate remains low and labor market conditions remain solid,” said the Fed in its statement, unanimously approved.
The text did not mention the sudden outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran or the risk that conflict supposes for world oil or other markets.
It is expected that the president of the FED, Jerome Powell, offers a press conference at 1830 GMT and is likely to speak on the subject, in addition to giving more details about the last statement and the economic projections of the Central Bank.
The Fed continues to ignore the request of President Donald Trump of immediate cuts of the interest rates, a measure that the officials of the Central Bank consider that it would go against their effort to ensure that inflation returns to its objective of 2% until the tariff changes end and their effects are better understood.
Before the meeting, Trump called Powell “stupid” and said that the official interest rate should be reduced by half, a measure that is usually reserved for serious economic emergencies.
The current Fed rate was set in December in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%.
Those responsible for monetary policy have been reluctant to commit to a calendar for new cuts given the volatility of US commercial policy.
FED officials see two feat cuts in 2025
Federal Reserve officials are increasingly divided on the path of monetary policy: the median of the new forecasts published on Wednesday continues to point to a cutting rate cutting rate for the end of the year, but a growing minority does not expect any low.
According to the projections, eight of the 19-monetary policy responsible for the FED foresee a decrease in rates up to 3.75% -4.00% at the end of the year, and two of them consider that a new cut of a quarterfinal would be appropriate.
Seven said that no cuts would be necessary, in front of March 4, and two considered that one would suffice.
For next year, the median suggests that the group as a whole is a bit more aggressive, aiming at a rate of 3.6% at the end of the year, above the 3,4% forecast of March.
Wednesday’s Fed decision of maintaining the official interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50% was unanimous.
With Reuters information.
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