Fertility in Latin America falls to a historical minimum and puts population replacement at risk

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The global fertility rate in Latin America and the Caribbean fell to 1.8 children per woman in 2024, the lowest level in history, being less than what is necessary to keep the population stable, according to an ECLAC report published this Wednesday.

The study by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) warns that three out of every four countries in the region are already below the replacement threshold since 2015, in a process accelerated by greater education and female labor participation, access to contraceptives and the reduction in teenage pregnancy, which fell by 38.8% in the last decade.

According to the Demographic Observatory 2025 – “Latin America and the Caribbean in the face of low fertility: trends and dynamics”, 76% of the countries and territories in the region registered rates lower than 2.1 children per woman, being below this level since 2015.

The decline in fertility, the report says, “responds to a combination of factors,” including the decline in childhood mortality, expanded access to education – especially for women –, increased female participation in the labor market, mass access to modern contraceptive methods, and progress toward greater gender equality.”

Reproductive preferences, consequently, have been “modified” over time, with the regulation of fertility and the postponement of motherhood, in a trend that has been evident in an accelerated manner since the second half of the 20th century in all countries of the region, “in a relatively short period compared to other regions of the world.”

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Changes in reproductive calendars

The document, prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE)-Population Division of ECLAC, indicates that the region “is going through an advanced phase of demographic transformation, characterized by increasingly lower fertility and significant changes in reproductive calendars.”

“The average age of fertility has shown a downward trend since 1950, when it was 29 years, until reaching its lowest point in 2010, at 26.9 years. Since then, the average age of fertility has gradually increased, reaching 27.6 years in 2024,” the organization details in a statement.

The fall in fertility “is also explained by the marked reduction in adolescent fertility during the last decade,” he adds.

“This went from 69.9 live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 in 2014, to 50.3 per 1,000 in 2024, which represents a decrease of 38.8%. The greatest advances in this period were recorded in Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay,” the report explains.

Also considering regional inequalities linked to reproductive behavior, the report confirms that “in the lowest income quintiles, the observed fertility exceeds the ideal average number of children that women declare they want, while in those with the highest incomes it is below the ideal number of children.”

This, he concludes, “would reflect gaps in the exercise of sexual and reproductive rights, as well as in the conciliation between productive and reproductive life, access to housing and care services, among other aspects.”

With information from EFE

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