The imposition of tariffs by the United States to Mexico still represents a significant risk for the Mexican economy, which could fall to 2.2% in 2025, in a negative scenario where 25% rates are maintained throughout the year, the area of Banamex economic studies.
The Financial Group said in a report that if 25% tariffs are specified, there would still be doubts about how much they would last, if they would be expanded to other countries, the size of Mexico’s response, and if there would be additional scaling.
Banamex elaborated several scenarios. In one base or central, where it already incorporates a high degree of uncertainty linked to Trump policies, the Mexican economy would slowerly be 0.2% in 2025, from 1.5% in 2024.
The exchange rate would be at 21.2 pesos per dollar towards December, inflation at 3.8% and the reference interest rate at 7.75%.
In the area director, Iván Arias, he pointed out at a press conference that the Mexican GDP growth perspective for this year remains at just 0.2%. The group explained that uncertainty persists on whether President Trump will respect the TMEC.
“In the world they did not believe Trump yesterday, our central scenario is not going to put tariffs to Mexico within a month or the rest of the year, because we see it too irrational, even for a Donald Trump,” said the director of Economic Studies of the Financial Group, Sergio Kurczyn.
Recession and fall of the Mexican economy
Arias explained that even with a baseline growth of 0.2%, the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican products from the United States would cause an economic deceleration in the country and even pushing towards a recession.
Although this weekend an agreement between the presidents of Mexico and the United States paused the imposition of this commercial rate, the specialist explained “that if the tariffs are completed for a period of three to four months the Mexican GDP could fall 0.4% ”
However, Arias stated that if Mexican exports rates are maintained for more than a year, the Mexican economy would contain up to 2.2%, pointing towards a recession, although they considered that this measure will be only temporary.
Lee: Tariffs concern industrial and silver -speakers, despite the pause
“We think that a three -month scenario to four tariff imposition would be reasonable in terms of a sufficient time for Trump to pay his point of his threats that he has a word,” he added.
According to the Banamex analysis, on the stage in which 25% tariff to 4.5%, while the reference interest rate would be 8.25% in December.
Evil is already made towards Mexico
Kurczyn also stressed that the damage to the Mexican economy is already made by President Trump, because he acknowledged that the climate of uncertainty around the Mexican economy persists despite the brake of tariffs.
“Trump will deteriorate the treaty we have between Canada, the United States and Mexico. He already deteriorated it. The evil is already done, although that evil is very moderate, the Free Trade Agreement tried to give, ”he emphasized,” he emphasized
Lee: Uncertainty persists on the border of Mexico despite Trump’s pauses
The Banamex report also warns that, in addition to direct economic impact, the application of these tariff Electronics
With EFE information
Inspy, discover and share. Follow us and find what you are looking for on our Instagram!
