Mexico City, (EFE) .- Although Mexico managed to avoid a technical recession at the close of the first quarter of 2025, analysts of the Monex Financial Group warned that the country is directed towards a sustained economic deceleration with “practically null growth” this year.
“Although, for the moment, (Mexico) avoided a technical recession (…) in the first quarter of this year, still, expectations are not so positive for this 2025. The market consensus is waiting for a growth of the GDP of only 0.1%, which basically what would imply a stagnation of the economy,” explained the director of economic analysis, exchange and bursatile of Monex, Janeth Quiróz Zamora.
At a press conference, within the framework of the 40th anniversary of Monex, Quiroz said that GDP growth could be minimal this year, with key sectors such as construction and services by showing strong weakness, according to their forecasts.
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This fragility, added José Roberto Solano Pérez, analysis manager of the group of financial specialists, does not equals a traditional recession, but an environment where “companies face important challenges in the face of practically null growth.”
“Some specialists talk about the topic of recession. We move this vision more towards a issue of economic fragility, both in the United States and Mexico and this can obviously be translated for American companies into very important challenges,” added Solano Pérez.
Advanced Tmec review would give certainty
The analysts said that the return of protectionist policies from the United States has modified the world economic landscape, in the midst of a tariff war and the dispute over the supply chains between the great powers such as the US and China.
In this context, Quiroz stressed that Mexico is positioned as a strategic player due to the TMEC, an agreement that grants zero tariffs to 49% of Mexican exports to the United States.
In this sense, the specialist pointed out that an advanced review of the TMEC would be positive, as it would mean “a light at the end of the tunnel” that would give certainty to the markets to think about the medium and long term.
“The fact that the review, the negotiations and that we are already talking about terms that will lead to a medium term agreement, or at least for the coming years is positive,” said Monex’s economic analysis director.
Quiroz said that this would mitigate a period of uncertainty that has been “very harmful”, especially because “the investment has maintained paralyzed, with many doubts for consumers.”
The analyst concluded that the possibility of advancing the review for the second half of 2025, as expected by the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, has even helped the exchange rate to be seen.
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