Mexico City, (EFE) .- The risk of a recession in the United States dragging the Mexican economy has vanished, although now its weakness focuses on the uncertainty for the commercial policy adopted by these countries in the midst of tariff tensions, said Julio Ruiz, chief economist of Citi Mexico.
The Mexican economy will grow only 0.2% in 2025, according to the consensus of the most recent CITI expectations survey, the result of an adverse external environment, especially for the persistent commercial uncertainty prior to the revision of the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC) in 2026, when a rebound for the Mexican economy is expected.
“The fact that (EU) continues to be relatively resilient vanifies that risk of additional deterioration,” said Ruiz.
In this regard, he said that Mexican weakness is more related to “the uncertainty of commercial policy”, in particular to tensions prior to the revision of the TMEC in 2026, where US President Donald Trump has promoted tariffs to industries such as automotive, steel and aluminum, among other restrictive measures to bilateral trade.
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On the possible tariff increases in the US for products outside the agreement, the economist considered that the impact will be limited as long as the exclusion of the goods that meets the requirements of the TMEC is maintained.
Although qualifiers such as Moody’s have projected significant losses, Ruiz emphasized that these scenarios suppose the general application of tariffs, which has not materialized.
“The part that meets the TMEC will not be taxed with this 30%, so we believe it is a relatively limited effect,” he added.
However, he hoped that if the commercial uncertainty is possible to clear and the TMEC is preserved, Mexico can have a competitive advantage over the rest of the world.
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“You have many winds against: fiscal consolidation, economic destabilization, (the policies of) Trump, but I believe that if we pass this issue of commercial uncertainty and we reach an agreement in the TMEC. I do see a relatively competitive Mexico and with a positive panorama with the rest of the world,” he concluded.
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