Despite the “uncertainty” caused in Mexico by the United States tariff policy, the country’s exports have grown up to 5% so far this year, driven by the advance of purchases by American companies to avoid the impact of the announced tariffs, according to Banamex analysts.
“Many companies advanced their purchases each month to try to avoid the tariffs that were already coming and that had already been announced,” said Sergio Kurczyn, one of the directors of economic studies at Banamex. “What saved the Mexican economy the most in 2025, as has been the case in previous years, are exports,” he added.
In statements to the media, the analyst stressed that Mexico has a “tariff advantage” thanks to the USMCA compared to the rest of the countries in the world.
Kurczyn stressed that this advantage was “enlarged” this year because the United States charges the country a tariff of 5% while that of the rest of the world is 11%.
“We believe that tariff difference has widened and will remain larger than before. Mexico is the world’s leading exporter to the United States (…) and now the difference has widened against China and Canada,” said the expert.
Even so, economic analysts from Banamex warned of the “important point” that the next renegotiation of the USMCA will represent for the national economy, which could lead to a “weakening” of the commercial advantage that the country has given its relationship with the United States.
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Despite everything, Mexican exports will once again “gain share” in the market in 2026, to the detriment of US imports, which “will fall” unlike this year, according to the forecast of specialists.
As a negative factor in the neighboring country, Banamex analysts showed their concern about the growing “politicization” of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which may become a “danger” for regional and international economic security.
“The Fed has been under quite significant attacks. And one begins to doubt whether decisions are made based on what is happening in the economy or whether they are made based on whether some of the members want to be the one to replace the Fed president next May,” they noted.
Mexico GDP of 0.2% in 2025
At the domestic level, the forecast of Banamex economists is a rebound in growth for Mexico of 1.5% of GDP in 2026, compared to this year (0.2%), driven by the “push” of the manufacturing industry and construction.
However, the bank pointed to an increase in inflation from 3.9 to 4.3%, which is why it considered that Banxico’s forecasts of a moderation of up to 3% will not occur.
Likewise, the entity cited as economic factors to take into account for 2026 the growth in national consumption of close to half a percentage point or the “spectacular drop” of 29% in public investment, something that “has not been seen for thirty years.”
On the political level, the analysts mentioned the “bad news” that in their opinion the “extravagant and negative” judicial reform represents or the current geopolitical risk that they perceive in the strategy of “interventions” in the Caribbean against alleged boats linked to drug trafficking by the White House, as well as the threat of a military intervention in Mexico.
With information from EFE.
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