The economic strategy announced this Monday by President Claudia Sheinbaum is not consistent with fiscal consolidation and does not address structural problems for Banamex, which is why it does not change its growth perspective for the country in 2025 and 2026.
The implementation of the so-called Mexico Plan would imply a greater public deficit, both due to the renunciation of income from tax incentives, and due to greater expenses, for example for the construction of infrastructure, which would impose greater challenges for the fiscal consolidation proposed by the government in the Economic Package 2025, the financial group stated in a report.
He added that the plan is biased towards seeking to strengthen the Mexican industry via barriers to imports, which coincides with Trump’s protectionist approaches, and not so much towards solving the problems that have led to low economic growth in recent decades. .
Read: Achieving fiscal consolidation requires comprehensive reform: research center
“Although there are related actions to improve infrastructure and human capital, we do not see a radical change with respect to previous approaches, which could lead to a relevant expansion of investment and productivity,” he considered.
He pointed out that this Monday’s announcement is part of the tradition at the beginning of the government of making explicit, already in office, the policy guidelines proposed since the electoral campaign.
However, he added, the plan has two peculiarities. On the one hand, it seems to be part of the defense strategy to face the risks linked to Trump’s threats regarding the implementation of tariffs on Mexico for allegedly serving as a bridge for exports from China, and because the current bilateral trade would be unfair for the United States. , given Mexico’s trade surplus.
Read: Sheinbaum presents the ‘Mexico Plan’ to boost competitiveness in the new Trump era
On the other hand, the package announced today envisions a more defined and active industrial policy than those of previous six-year periods, at least in its beginning.
Banamex noted that since the plan is based on general guidelines already established from Sheinbaum’s campaign platform, it was to a certain extent incorporated into its scenario.
macroeconomic.
“Additional steps will be required, such as the implementation of the short-term actions of the plan, to significantly improve the investment climate, after its significant deterioration as a result of the materialization of local and external political risks (such as the approval of legislative reforms and a Trump presidency) that led us to revise downward our estimates of economic growth in the second half of 2024,” he argued.
Read: Mexico would grow 1.2% more if North America increases replacement of Chinese imports: Treasury
Due to the above, the financial group maintained its forecasts for the Mexican economy during 2025 at just an advance of 0.2%, and 1.7% in 2026.
The Mexican economy grew 3.2% in 2023 and on January 30, Inegi will release preliminary GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2024.
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