Formal employment in Mexico will continue to slow down this year, with an average growth of 0.8% or 170 thousand additional jobs than those registered in 2024, according to Banamex.
The financial group anticipated in a report that at the state level, dark spots will prevail in employment performance.
The economic analysis area stated that there was an almost general slowdown in formal employment in the entities in 2024.
He pointed out that lower economic activity, due to lower investment in construction, largely due to the completion of public works carried out during the AMLO administration, as well as the stagnation of manufacturing, slowed the dynamism of formal employment last year.
He explained that this trend is reproduced in almost all entities, particularly in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year.
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He pointed out that the 2024 results show that the slowdown between the entities has not been homogeneous, and that within each state important discrepancies persist at the level of economic activity.
He anticipated that in 2025 the divergences will continue, although the general trends of fewer jobs could stop in some entities in the North, Bajío and Center of the country due to the possible increase in private work linked to nearshoring.
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This forecast is also based on an expected recovery in manufacturing activity, mainly towards the end of 2025, from the boost that the United States could transmit.
Banamex estimated that manufacturing activity in that country will grow 1.1%, from a drop of 0.4% in the previous two years.
Weaker formal employment generation since 2021
The firm, which foresees a slowdown in the Mexican economy this year to 0.2%, indicated that employment registered with the IMSS in 2024 grew below that observed in 2023, with seven entities with falls.
He specified that in the year that just ended, 433,246 new jobs were generated on average compared to the previous year, from 752,256 in 2023, which was the lowest figure since 2021.
These figures are equivalent to an increase of 2% in 2024, from 3.6% in 2023.
Only in three entities was the annual variation in employment generation higher in 2024 compared to 2023: Hidalgo (5.3% vs. 5%), Chiapas (5.3% vs. 4.1%) and State of Mexico (4.7% vs. 4.3%) .
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Banamex pointed out that these entities were the ones that led the employment growth indicator in 2024.
On the contrary, seven entities registered falls: Tabasco (9.9%), Zacatecas (1.2%) and falls of less than 1% in Chihuahua, Baja California, Durango, Campeche and Tamaulipas.
“In general, a greater deterioration in employment is observed in the north of the country, as well as in entities in the south that had been favored by public works during the last six-year term,” he said.
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