The anti-immigrant measures implemented by Donald Trump would not have a significant impact on the flow of remittances sent from the United States to Mexico, according to an analysis by BBVA Research published this Wednesday.
In its report, BBVA highlighted that remittances, which would have reached a new historical maximum in 2024 with an estimated 65,000 million, are determined mainly by the US economy rather than by immigration policies.
In the note, he even recalled that during the first Trump administration (2017-2021), remittances to Mexico grew by more than 50%, and the financial institution anticipated that the current panorama will be similar.
“If there were to be a reduction in remittances to Mexico, it would be explained mainly by fewer employment opportunities for migrants (economic slowdown), and not by factors related to US immigration policy,” he explained.
Currently, there are more than 12 million Mexican migrants in the United States, of which 4.1 million lack legal documentation, the report cited.
For this reason, BBVA emphasized that only a third of Mexicans in the US are undocumented, which would limit the impact of possible mass deportations on the flow of remittances.
In addition, he specified that a lower migrant labor supply could increase the salaries of existing workers, strengthening their capacity to send remittances.
He also considered that the geographical dispersion of migrants makes it difficult to implement widespread raids, while he highlighted that remittances not only depend on undocumented migrants, but also on the second and third generations of Mexicans in the United States who have citizenship and continue to send money to their families.
Read: Remittances reach 59,518 million dollars in the first 11 months of 2024
Although remittances to Mexico have shown a slowdown since the end of 2023, BBVA attributed the phenomenon to economic factors and not only to Trump’s return to the White House and his upcoming policies, such as the stabilization of the labor market in the United States and the fluctuation of the exchange rate.
“The volume of Mexican migrants in the US has remained relatively stable since 2007, at around 12 million inhabitants with a fluctuation range close to ±500,000. This clearly sets a limit on the growth potential of remittances, which is possibly already being reached,” he explained.
Regarding deportations, BBVA emphasized that during Trump’s first administration, 300,000 deportations were carried out annually, a figure lower than the 400,000 registered during Barack Obama’s first presidency.
This reinforces the view that a policy of mass deportations, although rhetorically promoted, would be unviable due to its high economic and social costs, and because 70% of undocumented migrants live in homes with US citizens, making effective operations difficult, he argued.
With information from EFE
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