MEXICO CITY.- The extraordinary incorporation to the formal employment of working people on digital platforms during July was not enough to decrease entities with falls at an annual rate, which shows the weakness of the real creation of jobs, according to Banamex.
In last month, 19 entities reported reductions in the IMSS indicator, from 17 in June and 12 at the beginning of the year, the financial group said in an analysis.
The entities with the highest formal employment contractions in July were Tabasco (-9.6%), Nayarit (3%) and Guerrero (2.7%).
Between January and July, almost half of the entities showed employment falls compared to the same period last year. The greatest contractions were observed in Tabasco (-8.9%), Campeche (-6.5%)
and Zacatecas (-3.2%).
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Banamex added that the entities registered a sectorial heterogeneity of employment, although it highlighted contraction in construction in almost the entire country.
In the accumulated to July, formal employment was reduced in four sectors: manufactures (-0.7%), agriculture (-1.5%), mining (-3.3%) and construction (-6.9%).
He said that the construction has had annual falles since September of last year, and that the termination of public works of the Sixenio de AMLO would greatly explain that trend.
The IMSS reported on Tuesday that due to the start of the pilot program of incorporation of apps workers, such as distributors or drivers, in July a million 291,365 of people in this category were added. An unprecedented fact.
The head of the institution, Zoé Robledo, explained that 48.4% of the records correspond to distribution and messaging services, and 51.5% to transport platforms.
With the data of July, the Universe of Social Security affiliates reached at the close of that month the 23 million 591,691.
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Banamex explained that by excluding the extraordinary record of platform workers, formal employment continues to show impairment, as it would have fallen 0.1% at an annual rate, from the stagnation observed in June.
He pointed out that the total number of workers registered with the IMSS would have added 22.3 million, 31,000 less than to the cut of July 2024, being the first loss of jobs since March 2021.
He added that the inclusion in the IMSS records of digital platform workers during July generates upward distortion in the series.
Banamex explained that the expansion of the pilot program would imply upward risks for registered employment and the decline for salary.
Therefore, he modified his forecast of formal employment from 22.4 to 23.1 million in 2025, and from 22.8 to 24.0 million in 2026.
On the other hand, it foresaw an average salary growth in real terms of 2.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, from 3.5% and 3.1%, respectively, due to the reduction shown in July before the inclusion of apps workers, where much would have done so with low wages.
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With the above, the group projected that the salary mass will increase 5.3% in 2025, from 3.8% in the previous estimate, and 5.4% in 2026, from the previous 4.7%, with an recomposition of its components, lower salary growth and employment rebound.
“It is an issue that the data became dirty, more that there is a change in trend (…), it is not that you are creating employment, you are simply formalizing it,” said Citi México chief economist, Julio Ruiz, at a press conference.
He considered that a way of making a reading without distortion is subtracting application workers and observing the growth of the rest.
“Temporarily removes the workers associated with the transport and communication sector that is where you have this effect, which weigh more or less as 7% of total employment. If you take them away, it will give you a much clearer trend of how much the IMSS total employment mass is growing,” he explained.
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