New York’s housing shortage could grow dramatically before the end of the next decade due to flooding.
More than 80,000 homes in the New York metropolitan area could be lost to flooding over the next 15 years, according to data by the Regional Plan Association reported by the New York Times. The report warns that climate change is poised to worsen the region’s already critical housing crisis.
The study projects that by 2040, the housing shortage could reach 1.2 million homes as swaths of land become impossible to develop due to increasing flood risks. Long Island is expected to shoulder the worst of it, with more than half of the affected homes located on the island, Babylon and Islip among the areas at risk.
In New York City, waterfront neighborhoods in southern Queens and Brooklyn, including the Rockaways and Canarsie, face the highest risk. Staten Island and parts of Westchester County along the Long Island Sound are also vulnerable.
“You’re going to need to build more housing to just replace what is lost in your own municipality,” Moses Gates, the association’s vice president for housing and neighborhood planning, told the Times.
Various flood mitigation measures are already underway throughout the city, including flood walls on Manhattan’s Lower East Side and engineered berms in the Rockaways. After Superstorm Sandy in 2012, Staten Island implemented “managed retreat” by purchasing and clearing over 500 damaged homes to return the land to its natural state.
A comprehensive plan to protect the entire city, however, remains decades away from completion.
The report recommends that cities and towns focus development in areas with lower flood risks near public transit and commercial centers. Revamping zoning codes would also be beneficial, as data from the National Zoning Atlas found that restrictions allow for only 580,000 additional homes — less than half of what will be needed.
Climate experts suggest rethinking conventional housing, potentially abandoning the suburban ideal of standalone homes in favor of denser, more energy-efficient options.
The Regional Plan Association released a report two months ago suggesting 19,000 homes in New York City proper were at risk of being lost from flooding by 2040.
— Holden Walter-Warner
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Flooding could wipe out 19K NYC homes in next 15 years
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