Fresh off absorbing this week’s tariff news from the White House, investors are bracing for a jobs report Friday that might provide little in the way of good news, even if it is better than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 140,000 in March, which is just about the average of the first two months of the year , according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Also in the report, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%. However, within the broader context of tariffs and their potential effect on inflation and other economic variables, there could be little to assuage the market mood. The payrolls report nevertheless is “incredibly important,” said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. “Indeed, with recession fears mounting, a weaker-than-expected print could be a nail in the coffin for the U.S. economy,” Lafargue wrote. “Unfortunately, a more encouraging reading could easily be dismissed as being ‘outdated’ given the prospect of significant tariffs hitting the US job market.” Indeed, the tariff reveal Wednesday from President Donald Trump not only was more severe than the market had expected, but it also left open a multitude of questions that make assessing economics or investing increasingly difficult. The market’s hope now could be that sentiment is so low that there is nowhere to go but up. “In this context, it feels like this is a lose-lose situation for markets,” Lafargue added. “However, this may be where the silver lining lies. With expectations so low, there’s a slim chance that markets use this data release as a catalyst for a short-term rebound.” Recent job indicators have been mixed. Weekly unemployment claims have held low, but Institute for Supply Management surveys this week, particularly on the services side, indicate hiring is weak. Also, consultancy firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday that announced layoffs have surged during Trump’s quest to cut the size of federal payrolls, something that could show up in Friday’s jobs count. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
