Gen X business owners are Main Street’s least optimistic on economy

As the U.S. economy moves through the final quarter of the year, uncertainty remains a constant. Consumers and large corporations are showing resilience, but Main Street is still feeling the squeeze of inflation and shifting policies.

The result? These mixed signals are keeping many small business owners on the sidelines when it comes to hiring and investment. Our latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey captures this divide — and reveals how entrepreneurs are weighing risk in today’s uneven economy.

This quarter’s data shows a sharp generational divide. While some small business owners remain hopeful, Gen X entrepreneurs are carrying the most economic anxiety. They’re the least confident group when it comes to both their own business stability and the broader U.S. outlook, a reflection of the mounting pressure on Gen X leaders to sustain growth in an unpredictable economy.

The findings point to a twofold challenge: established Gen X owners are most uneasy about the present, while younger entrepreneurs are increasingly anxious about what’s ahead. Gen Z and millennial business owners show the highest concern about a potential recession, even as they remain more optimistic about growth long-term.

For Gen X entrepreneurs — many in their peak earning and growth years — today’s pressures are front and center. These small business owners are laser-focused on near-term economic threats, from rising costs to shifting demand.

Gen X consistently shows the least confidence in today’s economy and business environment:

• Thirty-nine percent of Gen X small business owners cite jobs and the economy as their top issue, outpacing all other age groups (33% of Gen Z and millennials, and 25% of boomers/Silent Generation) and towering over other concerns like health care (15%), immigration (14%), and education (5%). 
• Only one in three (35%) Gen X small business owners say current business conditions are good, compared to 48% of Gen Z and millennials, and 40% of Silent/Boomers.
• Even with only a slight difference across generations, Gen X owners remain the most skeptical about the state of the economy, with only 34% currently viewing it as excellent or good. Though it is still a minority of these groups, there is relative optimism seen among both Gen Z and millennials (39%) and their boomer/silent counterparts (42%).

For these entrepreneurs at the height of their careers, economic strain is constant and concrete. Inflation, labor costs and operational stability weigh heavily on their outlook, shaping a more cautious view of the year ahead.

That lack of confidence extends beyond their own operations to the institutions shaping the economy. When asked about the effectiveness of the Federal Reserve in combating inflation, Gen X small business owners again stand out as the most skeptical group. Only 37% of these owners are confident in the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation, trailing the larger percentages of confidence reported by Gen Z and millennials (43%), and boomers/Silent Generation (48%) small business owners.

But at the same time, Gen Z and millennial entrepreneurs are fixated on what’s next. Seventy-three percent expect a U.S. recession, compared with 66% of Gen X and 58% of boomers/silent.

The data highlights how small business stress and economic anxiety can take different shapes across age cohorts: a pessimistic present for Gen X leaders and a fearful future for the younger generations. Those running the bulk of today’s small businesses are navigating an economy that is presenting reasons for pessimism. Recognizing these generational pressures — immediate anxiety versus looming uncertainty — is key to understanding the true state of Main Street as we head into the new year.

— By Eric Johnson, SurveyMonkey CEO